When will Iran-US conflict end?
16
Ṁ175Ṁ7472027
June 18, 2026
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
0.7%
2026 Q1
83%
2026 Q2
6%
2026 Q3-Q4
4%
2027 Q1-Q2
3%
2027 Q3-Q4
3%
2028+
The conflict will be considered ended when most news media report it as being over. No formal peace treaty or ceasefire is required.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
How many weeks will the US–Iran war last?
19
How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold?
US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?
26% chance
Will the US and Iran sign a formal end-of-war agreement by August 31, 2026?
43% chance
Civil War in Iran in 2026?
21% chance
Will the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections?
65% chance
When will the Iranian protests end?
8/14/26
What happens to the USA-Iran war when the 60 days War Powers Resolution end?
What will be included in the Iran-US peace deal?
Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?
54% chance