5/22/2026

This market refers to the United States resuming hostilities, what Israel does is irrelevant.

"Resume" means - broadly - a return to the state the conflict was in prior to the ceasefire i.e. general bombing from the air or from land & sea assets. If the bombing is localized (e.g. an Iranian ship fires at an American ship, American ship returns fire at that ship or only at the port the Iranian ship came from) that does not count as resumption of war. "Love taps" do not count as resumption of war.

Times are Iranian time

I will (probably) bet on this market