This market resolves to the number of whole weeks the Strait of Hormoz remains closed, counting from February 28th (the last day with normal-ish traffic).
By preference, the resolution will be based data from Portwatch (https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730); the Strait will be considered "open" if EITHER of these two conditions are met:
1) a single day with over 100 transits
2) a 7-day average of over 30 transits per day
This is intended to consider the Strait "open" even if traffic is substantially reduced, but not get triggered by a handful of ships breaking through.
If Portwatch doesn't show data (as it currently doesn't for me), this the market will resolve based a consensus of reporting that the Strait is open at the level described above.
I will not trade on this market.
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June 28 meets the 7-day average > 30 condition, so I'm resolving. If something weird happens like Portwatch revising down I'll ask a mod to unresolve
There is a reasonable gap in odds here:
@BodeyBaker Yes the 100 would be a (minor) outlier before the war. The idea is the if the big glut of waiting ships start pouring through I can resolve very quickly.
The 30 is a 7-day average, not total. So more like 1/3 to 1/2 the prewar level (unless I'm misunderstanding something). For reference the "back to normal" markets are based on a 7-day average of 60
@archvenison Yep, I made a mistake with the maths for #2. That seems more reasonable. It makes sense to aim high for a single day and have the seven day average being a lot higher than it is now but lower than before the war.