Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?

Ṁ18K

Ṁ520

resolved Sep 25

Resolved

YES

ALL

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9119/holdens-bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/ Expected to resolve around Mar 1, 2023. Close date updated to 2023-02-28 11:59 pm

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predicted YES

This market resolves YES (as the underlying metaculus question has now resolved.)

predicted YES

⬇️ More alpha over here ⬇️

predicted YES

Zvi conceded this bet: https://thezvi.substack.com/p/covid-92222-the-joe-biden-sings

Same as this market except with YES/NO reversed: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-at-least-75-of-the-usa-covid19

bought Ṁ478 of YES

We've already hit the 75% mark so the outcome is almost certainly YES, see https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-at-least-75-of-the-usa-covid19#q7lv70bmCEuSU5pwFkSU

bought Ṁ300 of YES

Current progress, based on Our World in Data: About 73k confirmed cases Jan-Feb 2022. And 18k from March-June 8th, which is already nearly 20% of the total. Only 5% left to get to a YES, by this data source. My understanding is that this resolves N/A if >25% covid cases occur after March 1st 2022 if relying on cases from a post-omicron variant.