Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?

1.2kṀ7935

2029

chance

ALL

https://www.econlib.org/archives/2014/06/bauman_climate_1.html

Arguing for YES is Bryan's uncanny track record -- he's never lost a public bet ever!

Arguing for NO is that global temperatures have gone up a lot in the 8 years since the bet was shaken on. You can look at the graph and see that Bryan Caplan was wrong.

Close date updated to 2024-05-15 3:59 pm

Climate

Predictions on Predictions

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Bryan Caplan plays & likes QE by August 1st?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

92% chance

[Metaculus] Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?

99% chance

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Samuel Knoche about college enrollment levels?

85% chance

Bryan Caplan wins Feast-or-Famine AI Bet with Holden Karnofsky?

36% chance

[Metaculus] Will Bryan Caplan win bet that global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?

1% chance

Will Bryan Caplan lose any of his public bets by 2030?

98% chance

Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?

31% chance

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

6% chance

Will Bryan Caplan get diagnosed with plasticosis by EOY2039?

Sort by:

Another year, another refresh of the global temperature graph:

Looks like the average temperature for the rest of the decade will now have to drop to 1980 levels for Bryan to win. I guess technically that's possible with geo-engineering?

Here's a refresh of the graph a year later, through the end of 2023:

I'm frustrated by how little Bryan Caplan is Bayesian-updating on his wrongness here! I know climate change is politicized and thus an epistemic nightmare to navigate and it's really good that Bryan Caplan was willing to wager about it, but then one has to actually change one's mind!

Here's a graph of what global temperature has to do for Bryan to win the bet. Bryan bet that the 2015-2029 average temperature wouldn't exceed the green line. The red line from 2015 to 2022 is the average so far. The red line from 2022 to 2029 is what the temperature has to do to drag the overall 2015-2029 average below the green line.

Stranger things have happened! Like the time Bryan bet in 2008 (against some crazy ideologue who was convinced that the EU was about to fall apart) that no major European country would leave the EU by 2020 and then Brexit happened in 2016 and it looked like Bryan lost but THEN the universe, not wanting to spoil Bryan’s perfect betting record, somehow conspired to drag Brexit out for four years, finally becoming official 30 days after Bryan officially won the bet.

predictedNO

PS, lest you think Bryan won the Brexit bet on some dumb technicality, they specifically operationalized it as a major EU member officially withdrawing by 2020-Jan-01. And really it's Bryan losing that would've been the dumb technicality since what they were operationalizing was "is the EU about to collapse?".

In other words, Bryan really was proven correct in that case. But he sure as heck won't be about climate change.

Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition