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Adding this in addition to @ChristopherRandles 's link to justify resolution criteria. As cited source is yet to be updated
https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-analysis-confirms-2023-as-warmest-year-on-record/#:~:text=Overall%2C%20Earth%20was%20about%202.5,when%20modern%20record%2Dkeeping%20began.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
2023 87 98 120 100 94 108 119 119 148 134 143 137 117 112 88 105 115 141 2023 Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year

So 1.17

@MarsHeer Resolve please

Getting to too high a percentage? How about betting on how hot?

e.g.

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/pays-10-for-each-001c-2023-temperat

Pays 10% for each 0.01C 2023 temperature anomaly is above 1.05C per Gistemp versus 1951-1980 base period

50% chance. Data in no smoothing column at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt (or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data) Resolution If the anomaly versus 1951 to 1980 base period per gistemp LOTI is reported as 1.15C or higher this claim pays 100% If the anomaly versus 1951 to 1980 base period per gistemp LOTI is reported as 1.05C or lower this claim pays 0% If 1.06C claims pays 10% and so on.

El nino year, and the shipping contrails stopped so likely a jump on the graph .

How do we define the “pre-industrial” era, exactly?

https://www.carbonbrief.org/challenge-defining-pre-industrial-era/

@Meta_C this question is looking at 1951-1980 baseline, not pre-industrial

The answer is trivially “yes”?

@Meta_C

The real question is, when will average global temperatures rise to 2C+…

@Meta_C It's compared to a higher baseline than you might think. Warmest on record was 1.02.

@StevenK

Heh…

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/science/analysis-is-it-actually-hotter-now-than-any-time-in-the-last-100000-years

Analysis: Is it actually hotter now than any time in the last 100,000 years?

A paleoclimate scientist who studies temperatures of the past explains what we can confidently say about when Earth was last this hot.

@Meta_C "on record" in this context just means "since the late 19th century"

@StevenK

Fair enough :)

Compared to what baseline?

@CromlynGames I cited source in the question. The baseline is the long-term average surface temperature measured between the years 1951-1980