Will we (temporarily) cross the 3 degrees celcius of global warming by 2026?
9
170Ṁ1973
2027
1%
chance

Essentially, will 2023, 2024, 2025 or 2026 be on average 3 degree celsius hotter than the 1850-1900 baseline?

Market context
Climate
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

(please disregard the previous version of this comment; I missed that 2026 was included)

People are also trading

Will a erage earth temperature increase by more than 2 % by the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
2% chance
Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2028, according to Berkeley Earth?
4% chance
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2029, according to Berkeley Earth?
-4% 1d81% chance
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
33% chance
Will the average global temperature in 2026 exceed 2025?
51% chance
Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
1% chance
Will global warming be 2 °Celsius or higher in 2029, according to Berkeley Earth?
5% chance
Will the world pass 1.5 C average annual temperature by 2030?
91% chance
Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?
49% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy