Description

This market resolves based on the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly reported by NASA’s GISTEMP v4 dataset.

Resolution Criteria

• This market resolves YES if the annual global temperature anomaly is ≥ +1.5°C relative to the 1850–1900 (pre-industrial) baseline in any single calendar year from 2024 through 2030 (inclusive).

• Otherwise, it resolves NO.

No Early Resolution

• This market will NOT resolve early, even if the threshold is reached before 2030.

• It will resolve only after final 2030 annual data is published by NASA (expected in early 2031).

Data Source (Official NASA)

• Primary dataset:
  https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
  https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv

• Background & methodology:
  https://science.nasa.gov/earth/measuring_global_temperature/

• The value used will be the final published annual anomaly from NASA GISTEMP v4.

Definitions & Methodology

• Pre-industrial baseline: 1850–1900 (consistent with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change conventions)

• NASA GISTEMP reports anomalies relative to 1951–1980; conversion to pre-industrial will use the widely accepted offset of ≈ +0.3°C

• Only annual averages are considered

• Monthly or daily exceedances do not count

• If NASA updates historical values, the latest official dataset version will be used.

Current Data Context

• 2023: ~1.36°C above pre-industrial

• 2024: ~1.47°C above pre-industrial (NASA estimate)

• No year has yet clearly exceeded ≥1.5°C in NASA GISTEMP

This means the threshold is very close, but not yet definitively crossed in this dataset.

• Update 2026-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves based on NASA GISTEMP annual data, using a single calendar year threshold (not a multi-year average).