@traders Just to make an arbitrary decision that seems roughly in the right spirit: will resolve once gistemp data is reported for March 2026, using the monthly average figures, deg C for the unit. Mar 2024 is currently listed as 1.39, for reference; if that's revised we'll use the revised value. Reopening for trading until then.

@mods Creator appears to be inactive, resolves NO.

Edit: I guess technically maybe we need to wait until March? IDK

degree F? degree C?
Annual average? or a monthly average? or what length?

(not that we will get close to either 1C or 1F in 2 years. 0.4C in 2 years 2022 - 2024 but I doubt that rate will continue it is more normally like 0.2C per decade. If monthly, then can get a bit more e.g. March 2014 to March 2016 assisted by super El Nino 0.78 to 1.35 is 0.57C which is just over 1F but probability of super El Nino occurring in time for March 2026 is slim. 2024 start time looks like it was above trend so need to be really/impossibly high in 2026.)
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

2 degrees warmer than today would be well beyond the most pessimistic IPCC projections for 2050, never mind two years from now.

https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/predictions-future-global-climate

@TomozeiGeorgeAlexandru compared to now? or compared to the days of Old

@Bayesian compared to today 06.03.2024

@TomozeiGeorgeAlexandru thanks! I'm assuming this is worldwide, according to some widely accepted source