📢Extending til end of 2025 since the title says "by end of 2025" ; if creator returns they can decide on re-closing or keeping as I set it.

@DanDeMann Can you please resolve your market? Appreciate it!

1. Which data? IPCC. Umm no that is unclear. IPCC is well respected, so good try, but IPCC does synthesis of climate papers which use various temperature records, they don't do their own temperature dataset. You need to specify which temperature record. E.g. Nasa gistemp v4 LOTI, NOAA, Hadley centre, Berkeley Earth ...

2. Close date 31 Dec 2023 seems weird, why not 31 December 2024 or maybe just before ~14 January 2025 when the data should be published. Do people want mana tied up for a year when they cannot trade?

3. 2% of what? Is it of 2022 temperature above preindustrial? Single year temp is more dependent on El Nino/ENSO than climate, and we know El Nino is starting to heat things up so 2023 and 2024 likely to be hot. 30 year averages would be more normal for climate so maybe it is 1993-2022 above preindustrial as the base and resolution on 1995-2024, but that would make 2% difficult to achieve?

4. Which preindustrial reconstruction is to be used? What if this is revised?
   

   As sHriFt said, it does seem a lot easier to just set a target temperature anomaly for 2024 per one of the main temperature records.

@ChristopherRandles This question seems like a mess and there are better ones. If there's no clarification from the creator soon I'm inclined to resolve N/A.

Isn't percent a weird way to predict this? % off of the Farenheit? Celsius? Kelvin?

Just do it like all climate predictions which is the absolute change in degrees Celsius.

@MichaelChu % increase only makes sense for Kelvin. In any case % increase in temperature is not a useful or clear way to measure climate change.

I think OP may have meant ° instead of %

What data will you use to resolve this?

@marketwise IPCC figures.

@DanDeMann I assume you meant degrees, not percent?

Also it looks like this is closing at end of 2023 despite being about data through end of 2025; was that intentional? Should the close date be extended for continued trading?