Responses must be at least 2 or more words. Trivial responses (such as "is a" or "White House") will be N/Aed at my discretion. I want big swings! I may bet in this market.
For a market to resolve YES, it must match the full phrase in its headline as it appears in the New York version of the New York Times, as published in the corner here: https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper. It can have extra words before or after the phrase, but not any intervening words (though punctuation is fine). For example, "Biden Reelected" would resolve to YES with the headline "Joe Biden Reelected as President of the United States," but not with the headline "Biden is Reelected President of the United States". So long as the phrase is found in the headline without anything intervening, that's also enough: Something like "Green Paint" would resolve YES with "Green: Paint Found to Cause Cancer," or "Senator Mondegreen Painting a Bright Outlook on Ukraine," because "Green Paint" is in the headline (though it's through other words). It would not resolve YES with "John Mondegreen Will Paint Wall Street Red."
Answers must have been added at least 2 calendar days before the headline appeared in print to resolve yes. For example, a headline that appears on a December 31 issue will only count toward an answer in this market submitted before 23:59:59 eastern time on December 29, and an answer submitted on January 1st would only resolve yes for a headline in the January 3rd issue or later.
Much like the question this market is based on, in this market, a New York Times cover page article headline (print) is any article headline (i.e. large, bold, or separated text that precedes an article) that is present on the front page of a daily print edition of the New York Times, and does not include subheadlines (the smaller text underneath the large, bold, or separated text).
For example, the February 27, 2024 cover page has the following cover page headlines, and only these headlines:
"As Sweden Joins NATO, Bloc Asserts Its Resolve"
"Delays in Data Make Housing Riddle for Fed"
"Weary but Hopeful, Ukrainians Are Unbowed"
"Biden Is Losing Party Loyalists Over Gaza War"
"$1 Billion Gift to Make Tuition At Bronx Medical School Free"
"The Business of Child Care Is Back on the Brink"
This question is heavily based on this question:
Update 2025-11-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on headlines appearing before 2026 (not before 2027, despite the close date). The creator will allow a 1 week window after January 1, 2026 to find any headlines that may have been missed.
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@Jack0 I... Genuinely don't remember which of those I meant for this to be. I think I'm going to go with Before 2026 (because I think 2 years sounds right) and give myself a 1 week window after the fact to find anything that was missed
"with Biden" resolves yes - https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/07/03/nytfrontpage/scan.pdf
@Marnix I checked 2024 Jun 09 to Jul 31. It takes more than a minute a page, so will probably not do any more for a while.
@Marnix any updates on which have resolved? Iโm worried that a bunch of these high percents already happened.
It appears that the front page is archived and freely visible
https://www.nytimes.com/issue/todayspaper/2025/11/22/todays-new-york-times
Which links to the actual pdf
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2025/11/22/nytfrontpage/scan.pdf
The linked page has web versions of the articles that land on the printed front page, but the titles are often different. This means it's still quite slow to look up titles from throughout the year.
@Pepe I haven't checked for roughly the past year, unfortunately. It's a lot more work checking these than i expected ๐ญ
@Marnix I am willing to check 1/n of the headlines if we collect n people to check together. Looks like we have to cover since 2024 May 29 to 2025 Dec 31.
@Marnix It looks like you can view the archive of front pages here:
https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/20250403
"climate change" resolves YES: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/10/28/nytfrontpage/scan.pdf
"trade war" resolves YES: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/11/28/nytfrontpage/scan.pdf
@Marnix How are you checking these? Seems like a bear to manually look through the front page image every day.
Odds are a little high given the number of non-qualifying alternative phrasings they could use e.g. Trump is convicted, Trump guilty, Trump found guilty, guilty verdict for Trump, conviction for Trump etc
@TheAllMemeingEye and it was none of these! It was "Jury Convicts Trump on all 34 counts" (or technically it would have been "Guilty," but)
I've missed, like, a month of these, so i've gone back and taken a look at the headlines. Here's what I found:
4/21/2024 - "Swimmers Tested Positive, Then Won Olympic Gold"
4/25/2024 - "Concern Increases as Evolving Bird Flu Infects More Mammals"
5/28/2024 - "A Bellicose Ally Eyes a Top Job if Trump Wins"
And "Trump Wins" gets a surprise resolution! What might be next?
We FINALLY have our first resolution, thanks to this headline from the 12th!