What 2+ word phrases will appear unbroken in a front-page NYT headline before 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
177
14kแน€69k
resolved Jan 10
Resolved
YES
With Biden
Resolved
YES
Climate Change
Resolved
YES
Second Term
Resolved
YES
Trade War
Resolved
YES
Vows to
Resolved
YES
Court Orders
Resolved
YES
Supreme Court
Resolved
YES
Civil war
Resolved
YES
Bird Flu
Resolved
YES
Officials Say
Resolved
YES
Found dead
Resolved
YES
Texas Fire
Resolved
YES
Trump Wins
Resolved
YES
Olympic Gold
Resolved
NO
Trump Convicted
Resolved
NO
Biden Wins
Resolved
NO
Landmark Decision
Resolved
NO
Dewey Defeats Truman
Resolved
NO
Double Knockout
Resolved
NO
Sudden Death

Responses must be at least 2 or more words. Trivial responses (such as "is a" or "White House") will be N/Aed at my discretion. I want big swings! I may bet in this market.

For a market to resolve YES, it must match the full phrase in its headline as it appears in the New York version of the New York Times, as published in the corner here: https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper. It can have extra words before or after the phrase, but not any intervening words (though punctuation is fine). For example, "Biden Reelected" would resolve to YES with the headline "Joe Biden Reelected as President of the United States," but not with the headline "Biden is Reelected President of the United States". So long as the phrase is found in the headline without anything intervening, that's also enough: Something like "Green Paint" would resolve YES with "Green: Paint Found to Cause Cancer," or "Senator Mondegreen Painting a Bright Outlook on Ukraine," because "Green Paint" is in the headline (though it's through other words). It would not resolve YES with "John Mondegreen Will Paint Wall Street Red."

Answers must have been added at least 2 calendar days before the headline appeared in print to resolve yes. For example, a headline that appears on a December 31 issue will only count toward an answer in this market submitted before 23:59:59 eastern time on December 29, and an answer submitted on January 1st would only resolve yes for a headline in the January 3rd issue or later.

Much like the question this market is based on, in this market, a New York Times cover page article headline (print) is any article headline (i.e. large, bold, or separated text that precedes an article) that is present on the front page of a daily print edition of the New York Times, and does not include subheadlines (the smaller text underneath the large, bold, or separated text).

For example, the February 27, 2024 cover page has the following cover page headlines, and only these headlines:
"As Sweden Joins NATO, Bloc Asserts Its Resolve"

"Delays in Data Make Housing Riddle for Fed"

"Weary but Hopeful, Ukrainians Are Unbowed"

"Biden Is Losing Party Loyalists Over Gaza War"

"$1 Billion Gift to Make Tuition At Bronx Medical School Free"

"The Business of Child Care Is Back on the Brink"

This question is heavily based on this question:

  • Update 2025-11-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on headlines appearing before 2026 (not before 2027, despite the close date). The creator will allow a 1 week window after January 1, 2026 to find any headlines that may have been missed.

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@traders I have not seen any headlines with the remaining phrases. If there's any headlines I missed, please link them, otherwise I'll resolve everything left here to NO at midnight tonight (ET)

@Marnix resolve please

Market can close now?

@Marnix Trump Vows to Strike at ISIS After 3 Deaths, static01.nyt.com/images/2025/12/14/nytfrontpage/scan.pdf

filled a แน€657 YES at 98% order

"vows to" does not resolve, too early https://static01.nyt.com/images/2024/08/01/nytfrontpage/scan.pdf

Edit: JK, the answer on this market is from 2024 Sep. This front page was 2024 Aug.

Please clarify, the title says before 2026, but the close date is 2027, so is the correct title before 2026 or before 2027

@Jack0 I... Genuinely don't remember which of those I meant for this to be. I think I'm going to go with Before 2026 (because I think 2 years sounds right) and give myself a 1 week window after the fact to find anything that was missed

filled a แน€1,074 YES at 99.0% order

@Marnix I checked 2024 Jun 09 to Jul 31. It takes more than a minute a page, so will probably not do any more for a while.

@Marnix any updates on which have resolved? Iโ€™m worried that a bunch of these high percents already happened.

It appears that the front page is archived and freely visible
https://www.nytimes.com/issue/todayspaper/2025/11/22/todays-new-york-times
Which links to the actual pdf
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2025/11/22/nytfrontpage/scan.pdf

The linked page has web versions of the articles that land on the printed front page, but the titles are often different. This means it's still quite slow to look up titles from throughout the year.

@Pepe I haven't checked for roughly the past year, unfortunately. It's a lot more work checking these than i expected ๐Ÿ˜ญ

@Marnix I am willing to check 1/n of the headlines if we collect n people to check together. Looks like we have to cover since 2024 May 29 to 2025 Dec 31.

@ButtocksCocktoasten imagine if this had happened due to the kirk shooter bullet casings XD

I no longer have access to the New York Times and am unable to check headlines.

@Marnix It looks like you can view the archive of front pages here:
https://nytimes.pressreader.com/the-new-york-times/20250403

bought แน€309 YES

I keep forgetting to check this for resolutions (but to be fair no one ever bugs me about it! or the mods for that matter!)

Anywho - checking the last 3 month's headlines, starting from today.

9/15/24 - SUPREME COURT

bought แน€200 YES

9/02/24 - Found Dead

bought แน€553 YES

08/31/24 - Court Orders

bought แน€250 YES

06/08/2024 - Civil War

@Marnix I skipped a substantial amount between these two because i got tired. Whoops ๐Ÿ˜…

bought แน€100 NO

@Marnix How are you checking these? Seems like a bear to manually look through the front page image every day.

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