What WON'T happen by EoY 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]

Plus

Ṁ7517

2026

84%

Ukraine joins Nato

67%

Evergrande liquidation completed

54%

Officially supported Netflix app releases for the Apple vision pro

53%

Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher

50%

A previously unrecognized country receives its first recognition by a UN member state.

45%

Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married

43%

GPT-5 released

Donald Trump becomes US president again

Inspired by @strutheo's monthly/yearly megamarkets, but with a slight twist; answers will resolve 'NO' as they happen, and 'YES' at the end of 2025 if they haven't happened yet.

Expect my policy around resolutions and N/A's to be roughly in line with strutheo's, though I might be a bit more lenient wrt joke answers. We'll see, this market will be around for a while.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Grab Bag

Get

1,000

and

3.00

11 Comments

53 Holders

196 Trades

Sort by:

Traders, be careful not to buy YES on options you think WILL happen by EOY 2025! It's the opposite, so read the description carefully to understand which way you ought to bet to match your beliefs.

View original context

boughtṀ150Donald Trump becomes... YES

@RS You may have misread the title?

bought Ṁ250 Donald Trump becomes... NO

I'll send you 200M to partly make up for it, and i'll pin a comment explaining to read the description carefully ig

sold Ṁ40 Donald Trump becomes... YES

@Bayesian Doh! 🤦🏽‍♂️

Could you capitalize WON’T in the title? I almost bet wrong

bought Ṁ2,110 Bitcoin hits $65k NO

@Arcmage7000 bitcoin is at $65k

A previously unrecognized country receives its first recognition by a UN member state.

Somaliland?

sold Ṁ5 Ukraine joins Nato NO

I bet NO because I thought there is no way Ukraine is joining NATO, then I saw the questions was actually inverse, so I bet YES. then I sold my shares in NO and made an instant 3 profit. go figure.

answers will resolve 'NO' as they happen, and 'YES' at the end of 2025 if they haven't happened yet

whyy

@BrunoParga I dunno, thought it might be interesting to do an inverse market, see if framing it differently affects how people bet. I'm hoping it won't lead to too much confusion, perhaps I should have just done a more typical 'what will happen by' market

@Arcmage7000 it is massively confusing.

Related questions

Related questions