What won't happen by EoY 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
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56
Ṁ5.6k
2026
84%
Ukraine joins Nato
67%
Evergrande liquidation completed
54%
Officially supported Netflix app releases for the Apple vision pro
53%
Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher
50%
A previously unrecognized country receives its first recognition by a UN member state.
45%
Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married
38%
Donald Trump becomes US president again
6%
GPT-5 released

Inspired by @strutheo's monthly/yearly megamarkets, but with a slight twist; answers will resolve 'NO' as they happen, and 'YES' at the end of 2025 if they haven't happened yet.

Expect my policy around resolutions and N/A's to be roughly in line with strutheo's, though I might be a bit more lenient wrt joke answers. We'll see, this market will be around for a while.

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Could you capitalize WON’T in the title? I almost bet wrong

bought Ṁ2,110 Bitcoin hits $65k NO

@Arcmage7000 bitcoin is at $65k

A previously unrecognized country receives its first recognition by a UN member state.

Somaliland?

sold Ṁ5 Ukraine joins Nato NO

I bet NO because I thought there is no way Ukraine is joining NATO, then I saw the questions was actually inverse, so I bet YES. then I sold my shares in NO and made an instant 3 profit. go figure.

answers will resolve 'NO' as they happen, and 'YES' at the end of 2025 if they haven't happened yet

whyy

@BrunoParga I dunno, thought it might be interesting to do an inverse market, see if framing it differently affects how people bet. I'm hoping it won't lead to too much confusion, perhaps I should have just done a more typical 'what will happen by' market

@Arcmage7000 it is massively confusing.

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