What won't happen by EoY 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
Basic
56
Ṁ5.6k2026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
84%
Ukraine joins Nato
67%
Evergrande liquidation completed
54%
Officially supported Netflix app releases for the Apple vision pro
53%
Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher
50%
A previously unrecognized country receives its first recognition by a UN member state.
45%
Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married
38%
Donald Trump becomes US president again
6%
GPT-5 released
Inspired by @strutheo's monthly/yearly megamarkets, but with a slight twist; answers will resolve 'NO' as they happen, and 'YES' at the end of 2025 if they haven't happened yet.
Expect my policy around resolutions and N/A's to be roughly in line with strutheo's, though I might be a bit more lenient wrt joke answers. We'll see, this market will be around for a while.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
🍎What will happen in September 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?
36% chance
What will happen in 2025? [Add Responses]
🔮What will be true about the world at the end of 2028? [ADD RESPONSES]
🦃What will happen in November 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
📆What will happen in 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
🎃What will happen in October 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
What Celebrity Related News Will Occur by EOY 2024 (ADD RESPONSES)
😇Who will go to Heaven by EOY 2025 according to Manifold? [ADD RESPONSES]
😈Who will go to Hell by EOY 2025 according to Manifold? [ADD RESPONSES]
Sort by:
@BrunoParga I dunno, thought it might be interesting to do an inverse market, see if framing it differently affects how people bet. I'm hoping it won't lead to too much confusion, perhaps I should have just done a more typical 'what will happen by' market
Related questions
Related questions
🍎What will happen in September 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
📆What will happen in 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?
36% chance
🎃What will happen in October 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
What will happen in 2025? [Add Responses]
What Celebrity Related News Will Occur by EOY 2024 (ADD RESPONSES)
🔮What will be true about the world at the end of 2028? [ADD RESPONSES]
😇Who will go to Heaven by EOY 2025 according to Manifold? [ADD RESPONSES]
🦃What will happen in November 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
😈Who will go to Hell by EOY 2025 according to Manifold? [ADD RESPONSES]