What new word(s) will appear for the first time in the New York Times before 2030? [ADD SUGGESTIONS]
45
232
2.1k
2030
90%
Metaculus
84%
Simping
79%
Transbian
77%
GPT-8
66%
Aroace
65%
copium
62%
femcel
50%
Ameritrash
50%
Underquilt
50%
SDXL
50%
mogged
41%
Mountainousness
40%
rizzful
39%
chadlet
35%
greebled
32%
NotKillEveryoneIsm
25%
Manifund
23%
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
3%
Rationalussy

I'll try to resolve this by following along with Max Bittker's "New New York Times" bluesky (formerly twitter) bot. If this bot stops working for any reason, I'll try to resolve answers manually. The ultimate truth lies in whether this is used in an official NYT article rather than whether a bot identifies it, of course.

Words must be spelled exactly the same in this market as in the NYT for it to count, aside from punctuation and letter case. Hyphenated words are allowed, plus the hyphen counts as punctuation, so a hyphenated word will resolve a non-hyphenated corresponding market and vice versa. Phrases of 2 or more words (non-hyphenated) don't count. Names and abbreviations do count.

If you're curious about whether a word is eligible to submit, you can use https://www.nytimes.com/search/ to check. Put the word in quotes. This appears to go back to 1851, so I really mean for the first time ever.

Words used for the first time ever will resolve YES, eligible words that haven't been used by 2030 will resolve NO, and ineligible entries (already used in the past or disqualified at my discretion) will resolve N/A.

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What about abbreviations?

@horse And names?

@horse Hmm good question. Both seem fair to me — really I think any unbroken string of characters should count (as per xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx). However I don't think names show up on the bot that I'll be monitoring, so I might not catch it right away. I'll eventually search all the answers in the market to see if they showed up though.

bought Ṁ7 femcel YES

@TylerJohnston The bot filters out anything that's capitalized, so both of those will probably be caught

Rationalussy

What if the New York Times makes another articles on Manifold and mentions the rationalussy meme?

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

note: this is 15 Xs, all amounts of Xs from 1 to 14 have appeared already I believe

bought Ṁ70 Rationalussy NO

Fun fact: GPT-5, GPT-6, and GPT-7 have all already appeared in the Times.

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