Should resolve Yes: GPT-o1 has an IQ of 133: https://trackingai.org/IQ.

Plot twist: AI bots take so many online IQ tests that a score of 100 is renormalized to above the human average.

Related:

https://redwoodresearch.substack.com/p/getting-50-sota-on-arc-agi-with-gpt

Very likely an AI will be able to do better than the average human on an IQ test by 2030. (having the same general intelligence as a human is another matter).

I would never before have described myself as "surpassing human intellect", but I guess I am wiser now!

Would be nice to reframe this about a specific new raven's progressive matricea test to keep it simple

@StrayClimb I'm particularly interested in the ARC test. Created a market specifically for that: https://manifold.markets/MGM/ai-solves-the-abstraction-and-reaso

Or:

I see you were looking for:

Very misleading title. Please change to reflect the actual resolution criteria. Compare to the probability of /L/will-human-brains-be-weaker-than-ai, which is a synonymous question yet has criteria that more in line with the title.

@IsaacKing I think "surpass" doesn't imply "in every way".

@IsaacKing I would like the criteria to be clearer.

@MartinRandall Then this should resolve YES right now, shouldn't it? Computers already surpass humans in several specific ways.

@IsaacKing @MartinRandall he's right, you can train an LLM (which is effectively synonymous with AI in most people's minds right now) to specifically pass virtually any test if you have the answers ahead of time. It's kind of like saying, "can a computer pass a test that it has the answers to ahead of time?" Yeah of course, that's been true for decades.

@PatrickDelaney I was thinking of a calculator, but that works too I guess. :)

@IsaacKing Well, yes, and I bought YES accordingly. The specific resolution criteria are "more than 100 IQ points on an official IQ test about problem solving" and that's done several times already.

@MartinRandall You mean you don't just scroll through the front page and give wild ass guess bets on things YES/NO based purely on the title? I do...way more fun...maybe I need to take the common sense benchmark test again.

@PatrickDelaney Well, I do both. In life, sometimes you're the shark, and sometimes you're the whale.

Bigbench Lite is an attempt to index a larger set of human intellect skills, it's the Dow Jones Industrial Average of benchmarking AI against human intellect:

Tangentially related:

As someone who has only bet $M 10 on this, I would like human intellect to be re-defined to make this more interesting, otherwise it's already as good as resolved YES for the most part as others has pointed out. A more interesting discussion could get into further discussions about what human intellect is and what the best metric or sets of metrics for it would be, vs. various A.I. leaderboards and find something that's more of a 50/50 at this point.

@PatrickDelaney I think that is a different market, which I encourage you to create.

@MartinRandall ok, see above: https://manifold.markets/GamerBathGamerGutten/will-ai-surpass-human-intellect-by#Ds1FyvBW3oRxnOCnG4Uj

Scoring > 100 points on an IQ test is a terrible definition of "surpass human intellect." I guess that's why you always read the description before betting!

No doubt Raven’s and older SATs will be done quite soon (150 LSAT is already basically ~100 IQ)