Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?
70%
chance

Will Resolve yes if an AI is able to score more than 100 IQ points on an offical IQ re test about problem solving. If the IQ test contains questions that are just about retained knowlege (like "who was the president in 2011") it wont count. Will Resolve no if it does'nt resolve yes.

This market will predict whether or not artificial intelligence will out-perform humans in the area of problem solving.

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Very likely an AI will be able to do better than the average human on an IQ test by 2030. (having the same general intelligence as a human is another matter).

I would never before have described myself as "surpassing human intellect", but I guess I am wiser now!

Would be nice to reframe this about a specific new raven's progressive matricea test to keep it simple

@StrayClimb I'm particularly interested in the ARC test. Created a market specifically for that: https://manifold.markets/MGM/ai-solves-the-abstraction-and-reaso

predicts YES

Or:

predicts YES

I see you were looking for:

Very misleading title. Please change to reflect the actual resolution criteria. Compare to the probability of /L/will-human-brains-be-weaker-than-ai, which is a synonymous question yet has criteria that more in line with the title.

predicts YES

@IsaacKing I think "surpass" doesn't imply "in every way".

@IsaacKing I would like the criteria to be clearer.

@MartinRandall Then this should resolve YES right now, shouldn't it? Computers already surpass humans in several specific ways.

predicts NO

@IsaacKing @MartinRandall he's right, you can train an LLM (which is effectively synonymous with AI in most people's minds right now) to specifically pass virtually any test if you have the answers ahead of time. It's kind of like saying, "can a computer pass a test that it has the answers to ahead of time?" Yeah of course, that's been true for decades.

@PatrickDelaney I was thinking of a calculator, but that works too I guess. :)

predicts YES

@IsaacKing Well, yes, and I bought YES accordingly. The specific resolution criteria are "more than 100 IQ points on an official IQ test about problem solving" and that's done several times already.

predicts NO

@MartinRandall You mean you don't just scroll through the front page and give wild ass guess bets on things YES/NO based purely on the title? I do...way more fun...maybe I need to take the common sense benchmark test again.

predicts YES

@PatrickDelaney Well, I do both. In life, sometimes you're the shark, and sometimes you're the whale.

predicts NO

Bigbench Lite is an attempt to index a larger set of human intellect skills, it's the Dow Jones Industrial Average of benchmarking AI against human intellect:

predicts NO

Tangentially related:

predicts NO

As someone who has only bet $M 10 on this, I would like human intellect to be re-defined to make this more interesting, otherwise it's already as good as resolved YES for the most part as others has pointed out. A more interesting discussion could get into further discussions about what human intellect is and what the best metric or sets of metrics for it would be, vs. various A.I. leaderboards and find something that's more of a 50/50 at this point.

@PatrickDelaney I think that is a different market, which I encourage you to create.

Scoring > 100 points on an IQ test is a terrible definition of "surpass human intellect." I guess that's why you always read the description before betting!

No doubt Raven’s and older SATs will be done quite soon (150 LSAT is already basically ~100 IQ)

Please be more specific about the tests you'd accept, because current AI are probably capable of scoring higher than 100 is plenty of them right now, forget 2030.

For example, these should all meet your requirements of not being "just about retained knowledge":

  1. RPM

  2. CFIT 3

  3. KBIT Non-Verbal

  4. CAS (Das-Naglieri)

  5. Naglieri Non-Verbal

  6. WRIT Visual

  7. RIAS

  8. MAB II Performance

This list includes most of the widely used IQ tests, by the way. You should be very clear if you think that any particular IQ test isn't eligible to qualify ahead of time.

It would be annoying for example if e.g. AI were to keep clearing IQ tests but you then retroactively come up with reasons to disqualify them for one reason or another. You could start by saying all the ones on the list would be fine, then people can work with that.

predicts YES

*in plenty of them

predicts NO

Does this include AIs that are specialized for a specific type of IQ test taking?