In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?
143
13kṀ35k2041
0.7%
2023
1.9%
2024
3%
2025
4%
2026
3%
2027
5%
2028
6%
2029
6%
2030
4%
2031
3%
2032
3%
2033
2%
2034
1.4%
2035
1.5%
2036
1.6%
2037
1.5%
2038
1.4%
2039
1.5%
2040
34%
Some year after 2040.
4%
Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create
Superintelligent AGI: An AI system surpassing majority human intellect in most or all fields, capable of understanding, learning, and applying knowledge across various tasks beyond single-domain specialization.
'Majority of AI researchers' refers to 51% or more of active, globally published AI researchers recognized by reputable sources such as established research organizations, academic journals, or comprehensive surveys. The market resolves when such a survey points to a year (even retrospectively) where most AI researchers agreed on the existence of AGI. Non-reputable or small-scale surveys will be disregarded.
If the survey indicates AGI was realized before the market's inception, the market resolves as N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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