In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized? | Manifold

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

143

13kṀ35k

2041

0.7%

2023

1.9%

2024

3%

2025

4%

2026

3%

2027

5%

2028

6%

2029

6%

2030

4%

2031

3%

2032

3%

2033

2%

2034

1.4%

2035

1.5%

2036

1.6%

2037

1.5%

2038

1.4%

2039

1.5%

2040

34%

Some year after 2040.

4%

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

Superintelligent AGI: An AI system surpassing majority human intellect in most or all fields, capable of understanding, learning, and applying knowledge across various tasks beyond single-domain specialization.

'Majority of AI researchers' refers to 51% or more of active, globally published AI researchers recognized by reputable sources such as established research organizations, academic journals, or comprehensive surveys. The market resolves when such a survey points to a year (even retrospectively) where most AI researchers agreed on the existence of AGI. Non-reputable or small-scale surveys will be disregarded.

If the survey indicates AGI was realized before the market's inception, the market resolves as N/A.

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Related questions

If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Will >1 year pass between an AI system being available and widespread agreement that it is sentient?

Who first builds an Artificial General Intelligence?

Will there be less than a year between the first AGI and the first superintelligence?

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

In what year will there be an AI capable of passing a high-quality Turing test?

Will superintelligent AI take over humanity by 2030?

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