In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized? | Manifold

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

143

13kṀ35k

2041

0.7%

2023

1.9%

2024

3%

2025

4%

2026

3%

2027

5%

2028

6%

2029

6%

2030

4%

2031

3%

2032

3%

2033

2%

2034

1.4%

2035

1.5%

2036

1.6%

2037

1.5%

2038

1.4%

2039

1.5%

2040

34%

Some year after 2040.

4%

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

Superintelligent AGI: An AI system surpassing majority human intellect in most or all fields, capable of understanding, learning, and applying knowledge across various tasks beyond single-domain specialization.

'Majority of AI researchers' refers to 51% or more of active, globally published AI researchers recognized by reputable sources such as established research organizations, academic journals, or comprehensive surveys. The market resolves when such a survey points to a year (even retrospectively) where most AI researchers agreed on the existence of AGI. Non-reputable or small-scale surveys will be disregarded.

If the survey indicates AGI was realized before the market's inception, the market resolves as N/A.

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Related questions

If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Will >1 year pass between an AI system being available and widespread agreement that it is sentient?

Who first builds an Artificial General Intelligence?

Will there be less than a year between the first AGI and the first superintelligence?

Will AI be capable of superhuman persuasion well before (>1yr) superhuman general intelligence?

Will superintelligent AI take over humanity by 2030?

Will we see the emergence of a 'super AI network' before 2035 ?

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