Everyone who is the 2024 Democratic nominee for either President or Vice President will resolve YES. Everyone else will resolve NO.
Market will resolve after the 2024 Democratic National Convention [probably August 22nd 2024]
Inspired by the great @Bayesian
I'll resolve this market as mentioned in the description after the Democratic National Convention. While I don't believe there will be any changes to the Democratic ticket until the convention, this year has been a year of the small probabilities with Biden dropping out and the assault on Trump, so there is still a chance for a change.
I'll resolve this market as mentioned in the description after the Democratic National Convention. While I don't believe there will be any changes to the Democratic ticket until the convention, this year has been a year of the small probabilities with Biden dropping out and the assault on Trump, so there is still a chance for a change.
misspoke
I'll resolve this market as mentioned in the description after the Democratic National Convention. While I don't believe there will be any changes to the Democratic ticket until the convention, this year has been a year of the small probabilities with Biden dropping out and the assault on Trump, so there is still a chance for a change.
SORRY Lion! I missed the part where it resolves at the convention.
tagging @AnonUser as well because I spoke out of turn above. this doesn't resolve until later in the month per the description.
I'll resolve this market as mentioned in the description after the Democratic National Convention. While I don't believe there will be any changes to the Democratic ticket until the convention, this year has been a year of the small probabilities with Biden dropping out and the assault on Trump, so there is still a chance for a change.
I don't know the specifics of this case but usually it's some combination of insider trading + people paying very close attention to public events. Prediction markets are very good at aggregating information and its easy to check how other prediction markets other than manifold are moving and where there is money to be made.