Well that was a fun market

@Lion Kamala is official, can resolve, thank you!

see pinned comment, see description, see the same question down below

I'll resolve this market as mentioned in the description after the Democratic National Convention. While I don't believe there will be any changes to the Democratic ticket until the convention, this year has been a year of the small probabilities with Biden dropping out and the assault on Trump, so there is still a chance for a change.

Just because there has been a couple of low probability events happening, does not mean that low probability events now have a better chance of happening than before.

Feel free to resolve after DNC though. I think everyone can wait.

@Lion time to resolve Kalama Harris to YES?

misspoke

I'll resolve this market as mentioned in the description after the Democratic National Convention. While I don't believe there will be any changes to the Democratic ticket until the convention, this year has been a year of the small probabilities with Biden dropping out and the assault on Trump, so there is still a chance for a change.

@Lion Kamala is official

https://apnews.com/article/harris-democratic-presidential-nomination-eb43b6b346cc644b2d195315cb2bfb20

SORRY Lion! I missed the part where it resolves at the convention.

tagging @AnonUser as well because I spoke out of turn above. this doesn't resolve until later in the month per the description.

I'll resolve this market as mentioned in the description after the Democratic National Convention. While I don't believe there will be any changes to the Democratic ticket until the convention, this year has been a year of the small probabilities with Biden dropping out and the assault on Trump, so there is still a chance for a change.

…did something leak this morning? Nothing verifiable popping up in my newsfeed, but folks are betting like it’s been announced…

I don't know the specifics of this case but usually it's some combination of insider trading + people paying very close attention to public events. Prediction markets are very good at aggregating information and its easy to check how other prediction markets other than manifold are moving and where there is money to be made.

Noob question: How can Michelle have a 5% chance to be the Democratic nominee, but only a 2% chance of being on the ticket? Surely the latter includes every situation she may become the nominee?

Because I don't have interest free loans anymore

@SirSalty If you give me an interest free loan of 100k I'll fix it for you

Here, have a trait-based VP market:

I would bet all my earthly possessions that it's not going to be Kelly or Whitmer (who have a 33% chance here). Mana will do for now