MANIFOLD
2028 Democratic nominee?
215
Ṁ23kṀ240k
2028
40%
Other
27%
Gavin Newsom
9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
6%
Pete Buttigieg
6%
Josh Shapiro
2%
Kamala Harris
2%
Gretchen Whitmer
2%
Andy Beshear
1.2%
No 2028 Election
1.1%
Stephen A. Smith
1%
Cory Booker
1%
Tim Walz

Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" for the candidate officially nominated by the Democratic Party for the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election, as confirmed by the party's official announcement or at the Democratic National Convention. If no candidate is nominated, it will resolve to "No."

Market context
2028 Election
US Politics
Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
Democratic Party
Kamala Harris
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related:

Andrew Cuomo, as much as it saddens me to say it

27% chance of nominating the governor of the most "woke" state after Trump was elected in party on a backlash to that. I suppose the pendulum could swing again. But I expect the post-Trump backlash to be driven by economic concerns.

There was a pretty big arb available with the other market.

reposted

Added another 10K liquidity.

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