Basic
502
403k
Aug 22
88%
Kamala Harris
32%
Joe Biden
9%
Gretchen Whitmer
9%
Gavin Newsom
9%
Roy Cooper
9%
Josh Shapiro
8%
Mark Kelly
8%
Andy Beshear
6%
Pete Buttigieg
4%
Beto O'Rourke
3%
Conor Lamb
2%
Amy Klobuchar
2%
Nicole Shanahan
2%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
2%
Robert Kennedy Jr.
1.8%
Michelle Obama
1.5%
Jill Biden
1%
Jimmy Carter
1%
Barack Obama

Everyone who is the 2024 Democratic nominee for either President or Vice President will resolve YES. Everyone else will resolve NO.

Market will resolve after the 2024 Democratic National Convention [probably August 22nd 2024]

Inspired by the great @Bayesian

Get Ṁ600 play money
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opened a Ṁ2,000 Andy Beshear NO at 10% order

I've put up a bunch of limit orders instead of adding subsidy because it isn't possible to add subsidy in a useful way to this market. I'd highly encourage you to use limit orders to buy large amounts of shares in this market. If anyone would like to "beat" my prices, please feel free to do so. I will adjust and restock the limit orders as needed.

opened a Ṁ2,000 Andy Beshear NO at 10% order

I've put up a bunch of limit orders instead of adding subsidy because it isn't possible to add subsidy in a useful way to this market. I'd highly encourage you to use limit orders to buy large amounts of shares in this market. If anyone would like to "beat" my prices, please feel free to do so. I will adjust and restock the limit orders as needed.

opened a Ṁ2,000 Kamala Harris YES at 86% order

I’m at 86% Kamala

bought Ṁ50 Kamala Harris NO

No 'other' option?

opened a Ṁ350 Joe Biden YES at 43% order

This is an unlinked MC

When the market doesn't add up to 100%, but some other value, like in this case, there's no Other but there's still a "Add answer" which lets you add an option that is initialized at 50%

bought Ṁ500 Kamala Harris NO

Clear!

This market isn't supposed to resolve to 100% in total since more than one option can be choosen. President nominee and VP nominee

Tupac

Not likely; the Democrats wouldn't want to associate with the guy who killed JFK (since he was arguably the most popular Democratic president in recent-ish history.) Maybe Biggie though.

Fair point, badly made. JFK is still alive. He is allegedly speaking for a return to WWE. As a refree.

Barack Obama
bought Ṁ100 Barack Obama NO

@egroj fixes the problem for dems: leave Biden as president, Obama can be nominated for VP, they can use 25th Amendment one week in, or wait until Biden dies, and Obama can still serve as president for 2 years

Jimmy Carter

@Lion 😂

Clearly the best choice 🧡 Perfect name recognition and he gets a bunch of young people excited

Jill Biden

Sell however much you want, it is still higher than Michelle Obama

bought Ṁ350 Jill Biden NO

not anymore. just for you

sold Ṁ221 Michelle Obama NO

And now Michelle and Jimmy have higher odds than her 😍

boughtṀ50Michelle Obama NO

@Joshua And of course you're buying Michelle down 😢

Joshua told me 6 months ago that Michelle Obama is not running for President and he has also advised me to bet every mana I have against it happening.

But he never said anything about Vice President....

Let the poor woman tend her vegetable garden!

No one says she can't have a vegetable garden in the White House again 😏

I don't particularly agree with the odds on Polymarket and PredictIt (7%/8% for the presidential nominee), but I still think you're undervaluing her a little bit in the current situation. And I have a heart for memes.

bought Ṁ50 Joe Biden YES
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