🏅 Top traders

@Marnix These can resolve, Walz was picked.

The one morning I oversleep...

I worry this one may have been misinterpreted - I initially intended it as "in their current political position" but i now see that it reads as "in any political position"; since it reads like that I suppose i'll just resolve it like that

Suprised nobody jumped on this right away lol.

@Marnix Btw, given this framing, does Mark Kelly qualify? He won his first full term in 2022 but was first elected in 2020 to finish McCain's term.

I'm so glad I didn't have to figure this out 😛

is Minnesota a swing state?

According to the definition I'm using, Minnesota is not a swing state (yet)

@BrunoParga Anyone know the hand dominance of the top VP candidates?

There's not really a "list" I could find, per se, BUT from what I can tell from pictures of them pitching/signing bills, here's what I've got:

Right handed:

• Shapiro

• Walz

• Beshear

• Pritzker

Left handed:

• Buttigieg

Unknown (couldn't find any images of him signing bills, pitching, etc):

• Kelly

What ChatBot said

Josh Shapiro: Right-handed

• Tim Walz: Right-handed

• Andy Beshear: Right-handed

• J.B. Pritzker: Right-handed

• Pete Buttigieg: Left-handed

• Mark Kelly: Left-handed

Read full chat:

https://chatgpt.com/share/e566a8cd-91f6-4b38-9ccb-557026275f6a

I worry it may have Mark Kelly (Astronaut Senator) confused with John Kelly (1-armed 11-year old baseball player). If it ends up being kelly I'll probably request it resolve N/A or see if he signs anything in the following days https://chroniclet.com/news/398333/inspiration-on-the-diamond-elyrias-john-kelly-thrives-with-one-arm/

Inspiration on the diamond: Elyria's John Kelly thrives with one arm

11-year-old a key member of state championship Hot Stove team.

The horse race is still going!

Related market: https://manifold.markets/Knuffa/will-kamala-harriss-vp-pick-be-a-st?r=bWFuaWNfcGl4aWVfYWdp

Are there any prominent potential Jewish options outside of Shapiro? Why is "wears glasses" so much lower?

Pritzker (though he's not a very likely option afaik)

Is North Carolina a swing state?

Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia per market creator.

So yes

What are we using as the definition of a swing state?

I'm going to use the same definition as https://manifold.markets/Weezing/will-2024-democratic-vp-be-a-straig, and say that swing states are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia (though "of a swing state" means it's just based on the position they hold and not their birthplace)

Will 2024 Democratic VP be "a straight white male from a swing state"?

39% chance. Any one who has not publicly declared otherwise will be considered straight. Swing states are: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. Where they are from will be determined based on where they were born.