Resolution criteria For each answer, resolve YES if Gavin Newsom makes an official public announcement that he is running for U.S. president in the 2028 election on or before that answer’s cutoff; resolve NO otherwise. “before [date]” is treated as on or before 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time on that date. e.g. if the announcement occurs on Dec 15, 2027, the "before Dec 31, 2027" AND "before Mar 31, 2028" options resolve YES. Acceptable evidence (use the earliest timestamp across sources): FEC Form 2 (Statement of Candidacy) filed for a 2028 presidential run. (fec.gov) An explicit statement by Newsom or an authorized spokesperson that he is running for president in 2028 (e.g., on his verified social accounts or official site - gavinnewsom.com). Forming an exploratory committee/testing‑the‑waters effort without an explicit “I’m running” announcement or a 2028 presidential Form 2 does not count. (fec.gov) “Never announces a 2028 presidential run.” resolves YES at 12:00:00 am ET on Dec 1, 2028 if no qualifying announcement (above) has occurred by then; if he withdraws after announcing, the relevant earlier time-buckets still resolves YES. Background Newsom is term‑limited as California governor (two 4‑year terms); the next gubernatorial election is Nov 3, 2026, and his current term ends in early January 2027. (ballotpedia.org, en.wikipedia.org) In 2025 he began publicly leaving the door open to a future presidential bid, after earlier denials. (calmatters.org, cbsnews.com) Considerations Campaigns sometimes file with the FEC shortly before or without a splashy public event; if that happens, the FEC filing time controls. (fec.gov) Teasers, leaks, or media reports don’t count unless paired with an explicit announcement or FEC Form 2 for 2028. (fec.gov)

59% chance. Resolves yes if JB officially throws his hat in the ring for 2028 presidential election.