Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
87
4.1kṀ12k
2028
82%
Gavin Newsom
77%
Pete Buttigieg
74%
Josh Shapiro
65%
JB Pritzker
62%
Gretchen Whitmer
55%
Andy Beshear
47%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
45%
Chris Van Hollen
44%
Jared Polis
41%
Tim Walz
39%
Cory Booker
34%
Raphael Warnock
33%
Chris Murphy
29%
Stephen A. Smith
29%
Ro Khanna
28%
John Fetterman
28%
Andrew Cuomo
26%
Roy Cooper
21%
Kamala Harris
16%
Jay Inslee

This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format. The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers. Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.

Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries will resolve YES. The criteria here are:

The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls.

If Wikipedia changes the structure of the page for the 2028 primaries, I will fall back to the criteria "any declared candidate with a wikipedia page".

When the primaries have concluded, all other options will resolve NO.

See also: /DanMan314/who-will-run-for-the-republican-pre

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