Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
112
5.3kṀ22k
2028
90%
Gavin Newsom
74%
Josh Shapiro
60%
Pete Buttigieg
58%
JB Pritzker
54%
Gretchen Whitmer
53%
Wes Moore
51%
Andy Beshear
47%
Tim Walz
45%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
41%
Amy Klobuchar
35%
Jon Ossof
34%
Chris Murphy
32%
Jared Polis
32%
Raphael Warnock
31%
Jamie Raskin
29%
Stacey Abrams
28%
Chris Van Hollen
26%
Cory Booker
26%
Ro Khanna
24%
Dean Phillips

This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format. The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers. Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.

Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Democratic Party presidential primaries will resolve YES. The criteria here are:

The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls.

If Wikipedia changes the structure of the page for the 2028 primaries, I will fall back to the criteria "any declared candidate with a wikipedia page".

When the primaries have concluded, all other options will resolve NO.

See also: /DanMan314/who-will-run-for-the-republican-pre

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related: https://manifold.markets/DanielCsomor/when-will-gavin-newsom-announce-his

When will Gavin Newsom announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Resolution criteria For each answer, resolve YES if Gavin Newsom makes an official public announcement that he is running for U.S. president in the 2028 election on or before that answer’s cutoff; resolve NO otherwise. “before [date]” is treated as on or before 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time on that date. e.g. if the announcement occurs on Dec 15, 2027, the "before Dec 31, 2027" AND "before Mar 31, 2028" options resolve YES. Acceptable evidence (use the earliest timestamp across sources): FEC Form 2 (Statement of Candidacy) filed for a 2028 presidential run. (fec.gov) An explicit statement by Newsom or an authorized spokesperson that he is running for president in 2028 (e.g., on his verified social accounts or official site - gavinnewsom.com). Forming an exploratory committee/testing‑the‑waters effort without an explicit “I’m running” announcement or a 2028 presidential Form 2 does not count. (fec.gov) “Never announces a 2028 presidential run.” resolves YES at 12:00:00 am ET on Dec 1, 2028 if no qualifying announcement (above) has occurred by then; if he withdraws after announcing, the relevant earlier time-buckets still resolves YES. Background Newsom is term‑limited as California governor (two 4‑year terms); the next gubernatorial election is Nov 3, 2026, and his current term ends in early January 2027. (ballotpedia.org, en.wikipedia.org) In 2025 he began publicly leaving the door open to a future presidential bid, after earlier denials. (calmatters.org, cbsnews.com) Considerations Campaigns sometimes file with the FEC shortly before or without a splashy public event; if that happens, the FEC filing time controls. (fec.gov) Teasers, leaks, or media reports don’t count unless paired with an explicit announcement or FEC Form 2 for 2028. (fec.gov)

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