I swear to everything. I bet a modest sum on Gavin Newsom YES, who was at 14%. Because of how multi-side markets work, this triggered limit offers from every option lowered by that. The result? Gavin Newsom dropped to 13%. That's not how bets should work, @Manifold!

@b575 (And now the interface also thinks I hold NO shares. What is going on? Am I going crazy?)

@Yuna Not sure about that one

@Gabrielle I agree. But I'm just the messenger :)

@Gabrielle we need the Manifold house trading bot to spend 89k mana to destroy that

Why do you lot keep propping up that nobody Ossoff? Like, there are so many limit orders I could pour in all my mana and that would barely make a dent.

@b575 ? It would only take 750 mana to move it by 10pp

I've never heard of the guy - I'm not popping him up, I'm just arbing

@Fion That's what the interface says, but after you actually pop the mana, limit orders flush in and move it back. It said I'd move it by several pp with my 200; it didn't even blink.

@traders related, who will be the first to announce?: https://manifold.markets/DanielCsomor/which-democrat-will-be-the-first-to?r=RGFuaWVsQ3NvbW9y

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/02/trump-goes-public-with-plan-to-take-over-elections-fulton-county-georgia/

@Lorelai

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/gop-fast-tracks-monster-voter-suppression-bill-that-could-disenfranchise-millions-by-requiring-proof-of-citizenship-at-polls/

More voter suppression, who could have possibly foreseen this

@Lorelai why only bet M5? This seems like a sure bet.

@AlanMurphy I would say that with very vague resolution criteria, bets on this option are very unsure either way.

Nicolás Maduro?

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer He is certainly winning with their base

Here's how bernie can still win

Bernie has said that he won’t run and that younger candidates should run instead of him.

@Lorelai what does "real election" mean in this context? This feels like perfect fodder for heated arguments about how this should resolve.

@AlexanderTheGreater There’s been talks/concerns of national guard / ice patrolling some blue-leaning poll sites, would this count as too much interference for “a real election” to be counted as invalid?

@DonaldTrump honestly that IMO should be a separate market

@AlexanderTheGreater any of these candidates here can win the nomination and the election is "real" or not. It's orthogonal. The election not taking place at all would be a different story

@DonaldTrump nooo bro is still active

@realDonaldTrump you’re jealous

The option "someone else" needs to be N/A as there is already an other option.

Newsom 50%+