Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): When counting parties, alliances and parties will both be included in the full list (not just standalone parties). Update 2026-07-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Questions apply to the current elections, even if the final outcome is known after 2026 ends.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, More than 6% of eligible votes go to parties below the threshold, followed by New PM other than Netanyahu and The first candidate tasked with forming a government fails are most likely. See the market for live updates (20 traders, as of Sep 8, 2026).

Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]

MANIFOLD

Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]

Ṁ1.8kṀ4.4k

Dec 31

64%

More than 6% of eligible votes go to parties below the threshold

63%

New PM other than Netanyahu

57%

The first candidate tasked with forming a government fails

56%

The largest party wins fewer than 25 seats

49%

Stalemate: no new government, another elections (similar to 2019)

48%

Likud is the biggest party after next elections

45%

At least one incumbent coalition party fails to cross the electoral threshold

40%

Opposition block forms a minority coalition with external support of Arab block

36%

Netanyahu claims the elections were stolen due to widespread fraud

28%

Opposition block (ex. Arab parties) wins a majority in the next elections

Bennet’s new party is the biggest party after the next elections

Resolved

YES

Budget law is passed before deadline (end of March)

Resolved

YES

New primary elections for Likud before the general elections

Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): When counting parties, alliances and parties will both be included in the full list (not just standalone parties).

Update 2026-07-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Questions apply to the current elections, even if the final outcome is known after 2026 ends.

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