Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): When counting parties, alliances and parties will both be included in the full list (not just standalone parties).

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Elections held before October 27th, followed by Likud is the biggest party after next elections and Opposition block (ex. Arab parties) wins a majority in the next elections are most likely. See the market for live updates (9 traders, as of May 4, 2026).

Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]

MANIFOLD

Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]

Ṁ1.1kṀ2.6k

Dec 31

85%

Elections held before October 27th

59%

Likud is the biggest party after next elections

50%

Opposition block (ex. Arab parties) wins a majority in the next elections

48%

New PM other than Netanyahu

33%

Bennet’s new party is the biggest party after the next elections

28%

Opposition block forms a minority coalition with external support of Arab block

Resolved

YES

Budget law is passed before deadline (end of March)

Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): When counting parties, alliances and parties will both be included in the full list (not just standalone parties).

Market context

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