Resolves based on who wins the 2026 Ohio Special Senate election, and the 2026 Ohio Governor election

Resolution criteria

Both elections will be held on November 3, 2026. The market resolves based on the winners of these two races:

• Republicans win both: Republican wins the gubernatorial election AND Republican wins the special Senate election

• Democrats win both: Democrat wins the gubernatorial election AND Democrat wins the special Senate election

• Republicans win at least one: Republican wins either the gubernatorial election OR the special Senate election or BOTH

  • Democrats win at least one: Democrat wins either the gubernatorial election OR the special Senate election or BOTH

• Democrats and Republicans wins exactly one each: must win 1 each.

Results can be verified through official Ohio Secretary of State election results at https://www.sos.state.oh.us/elections/

Background

The special Senate election follows JD Vance's election as vice president, as he resigned from the Senate on January 10, 2025. Governor Mike DeWine appointed then-Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted to replace Vance in the Senate.

Incumbent Republican Governor Mike DeWine is term-limited and ineligible to seek a third consecutive term. Recent polling shows the gubernatorial race between Republican Vivek Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton at 45%-46%, while the Senate race shows Republican Jon Husted at 49% and Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown at 46%.

Considerations

Democrats have not won a gubernatorial election in Ohio since 2006, and have not won a statewide race since 2018. However, both races are currently within the margin of error according to recent polling, making both outcomes competitive.