Resolution criteria
Each option resolves independently to YES or NO based on events starting from today (30th May) through to the end of the year.
The leader of a country will die: Resolves YES if a head of state or head of government (e.g., President, Prime Minister, Ruling Monarch, Supreme Leader) of a sovereign nation dies while in office during 2026.
A figure in the Epstein files is prosecuted for wrongdoing: Resolves YES if any individual named in the official documents released is formally arrested, indicted, or criminally charged in connection with the files.
A president will be assassinated: Resolves YES if a serving president of any sovereign nation is killed in a violent, politically motivated attack.
There is a trial at the ICC: Resolves YES if a criminal trial formally begins proceedings in the International Criminal Court during 2026.
NATO invokes Article 5: Resolves YES if the North Atlantic Council formally invokes Article 5.
❗Add your own 😀
Update 2026-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the 'A president will be assassinated' option, the following roles qualify:
Presidents
Prime Ministers
Monarchs
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@Gemc Does prime minister or general secretary count if they are the chief executive of that country?
@RaymondChristopherTanto Presidents, Prime Ministers and Monarchies. Thanks for the question and for investing 😊
@RaymondChristopherTanto And thanks for the question! This is really helpful for me and others who may be wondering the same