Options
Users are welcome to add relevant options to the market.
I may edit user-submitted options for the sake of clarity. I will not substantially change the meaning of any option that has already been traded on. I reserve the right to void user-submitted options for any reason.
Resolution criteria
Each option in this market will resolve YES if the proposition proves true. Each option will otherwise resolve NO.
Clarifications
Unless indicated otherwise, options in this market refer to the 2026 general election for the Victorian Legislative Assembly.
For the purpose of this market:
'Endorse' refers to an editorial endorsement primarily for one party/coalition.
'Primary vote share' is the proportion of first preference votes received by a party.
'Seats' refers to lower house seats unless indicated otherwise.
'The Coalition' refers to the Liberal-National Coalition.
1,000Some updates on a few options here:
Group voting tickets are abolished before the election
Resolved YES as the bill passed parliament and Royal Assent is a formality - but this can be re-resolved in the unlikely event that it's not.
Jacinta Allan leads Labor to the election
This looks an almost certain NO, but technically I should wait until the day of the election to resolve.
Jacinta Allan retains her seat
She's just announced she won't contest her seat again, so this also looks like a NO, but I'll wait until the close of nominations to make sure.
See my state election dashboard here: