Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
2026 Victorian state election prop bets
1
Ṁ1.2kṀ146
2028
45%
Group voting tickets are abolished before the election
80%
The Age endorses Labor
35%
The Herald Sun endorses One Nation
50%
Jacinta Allan leads Labor to the election
50%
Jacinta Allan retains her seat
50%
Greens primary vote share increases
50%
Labor wins more seats than One Nation
50%
One Nation wins more seats than the Liberals
50%
Greens win more seats than the Nationals
50%
The election results in a hung parliament
50%
Statewide Treaty Act 2025 is repealed by the end of 2027
50%
Victoria holds a referendum on electoral reform by the end of 2028

Options

Users are welcome to add relevant options to the market.

I may edit user-submitted options for the sake of clarity. I will not substantially change the meaning of any option that has already been traded on. I reserve the right to void user-submitted options for any reason.

Resolution criteria

Each option in this market will resolve YES if the proposition proves true. Each option will otherwise resolve NO.

Clarifications

Unless indicated otherwise, options in this market refer to the 2026 general election for the Victorian Legislative Assembly.

For the purpose of this market:

'Endorse' refers to an editorial endorsement primarily for one party/coalition.

'Primary vote share' is the proportion of first preference votes received by a party.

'Seats' refers to lower house seats unless indicated otherwise.

'The Coalition' refers to the Liberal-National Coalition.

The creator has blocked themselves from betting in this market.
Market context
Politics
Elections
Elections: World
Australia
Australian Politics
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
reposted

See my state election dashboard here:

https://manifold.markets/news/2026-victorian-state-election