Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): When counting parties, alliances and parties will both be included in the full list (not just standalone parties).

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Elections held before October 27th, followed by Likud is the biggest party after next elections and More than 6% of eligible votes go to parties below the threshold are most likely. See the market for live updates (18 traders, as of Jul 7, 2026).

Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]

MANIFOLD

Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]

Ṁ1.4kṀ3.3k

Dec 31

67%

Elections held before October 27th

60%

Likud is the biggest party after next elections

60%

More than 6% of eligible votes go to parties below the threshold

59%

New PM other than Netanyahu

43%

Stalemate: no new government, another elections (similar to 2019)

42%

Netanyahu claims the elections were stolen due to widespread fraud

32%

Opposition block forms a minority coalition with external support of Arab block

30%

Opposition block (ex. Arab parties) wins a majority in the next elections

15%

Bennet’s new party is the biggest party after the next elections

Resolved

YES

Budget law is passed before deadline (end of March)

Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): When counting parties, alliances and parties will both be included in the full list (not just standalone parties).

Market context

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