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MANIFOLD
Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]
21
Ṁ2.4kṀ5k
Dec 31
80%
Religious Zionism–Zehut passes the threshold
80%
Ra’am passes the threshold
67%
More than 6% of eligible votes go to parties below the threshold
57%
The first candidate tasked with forming a government fails
57%
New PM other than Netanyahu
56%
The largest party wins fewer than 25 seats
55%
Amcha Yisrael passes the threshold
52%
Stalemate: no new government, another elections (similar to 2019)
50%
Opposition-led coalition, with temporary support from Arab parties, is sweared in and immediately disbanded - just so Netanyahu will not be caretaker PM
45%
At least one incumbent coalition party fails to cross the electoral threshold
44%
Likud is the biggest party after next elections
40%
Opposition block forms a minority coalition with external support of Arab block
36%
Netanyahu claims the elections were stolen due to widespread fraud
31%
Reservists + New Economy passes the threshold
26%
Opposition block (ex. Arab parties) wins a majority in the next elections
8%
Blue and White passes the threshold
4%
Bennet’s new party is the biggest party after the next elections
Resolved
YES
Budget law is passed before deadline (end of March)
Resolved
YES
New primary elections for Likud before the general elections

  • Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): When counting parties, alliances and parties will both be included in the full list (not just standalone parties).

  • Update 2026-07-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Questions apply to the current elections, even if the final outcome is known after 2026 ends.

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@Lemming do we know whether this would work?

@AhronMaline legally, it can. Politically, that’s what the market is for.

bought Ṁ100 YES

@Lemming This resolves YES.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/cohen-levin-ohana-and-regev-top-likud-primary-with-over-60-of-vote-counted/

bought Ṁ10 YES

Clarification: the questions apply for the current elections, even if the final outcome will be known after 2026 ends.

bought Ṁ50 NO

are we distinguishing between “alliances” and “parties” and if so how

@TeapotinSagittarius good catch. Even though I technically mentioned “party”, I am going to use the entire list, inclusive of alliances.

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