Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): When counting parties, alliances and parties will both be included in the full list (not just standalone parties). Update 2026-07-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Questions apply to the current elections, even if the final outcome is known after 2026 ends.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, New PM other than Netanyahu, followed by More than 6% of eligible votes go to parties below the threshold and Likud is the biggest party after next elections are most likely. See the market for live updates (19 traders, as of Aug 20, 2026).

Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]

MANIFOLD

Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]

Ṁ1.8kṀ3.7k

Dec 31

68%

New PM other than Netanyahu

64%

More than 6% of eligible votes go to parties below the threshold

52%

Likud is the biggest party after next elections

51%

The largest party wins fewer than 25 seats

50%

New primary elections for Likud before the general elections

49%

Stalemate: no new government, another elections (similar to 2019)

45%

At least one incumbent coalition party fails to cross the electoral threshold

45%

The first candidate tasked with forming a government fails

40%

Opposition block forms a minority coalition with external support of Arab block

38%

Netanyahu claims the elections were stolen due to widespread fraud

30%

Opposition block (ex. Arab parties) wins a majority in the next elections

Bennet’s new party is the biggest party after the next elections

Resolved

YES

Budget law is passed before deadline (end of March)

Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): When counting parties, alliances and parties will both be included in the full list (not just standalone parties).

Update 2026-07-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Questions apply to the current elections, even if the final outcome is known after 2026 ends.

Market context

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