Donald Trump has expressed interest in purchasing at least part of Greenland. If the United States acquires at least part of Greenland before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves YES.
Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Acquisition Criteria:
The market will resolve YES if Greenland becomes a US territory or if the US government or one of its constituent agencies acquires any portion of Greenland.
This acquisition must involve government ownership of the land, not merely private or academic entities (for example, a science lab established by Harvard University does not qualify).
Update 2026-01-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator emphasizes that this market is about whether Greenland or a meaningful portion of it becomes part of America, not about minor acquisitions like a single building or small plot of land. The resolution will be obvious when it happens - this is about substantial territorial acquisition, not edge cases involving minimal land or property ownership.
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@ItsMe alternatively, an independent Eskaleut Confederation would be refreshing, given the centuries of subjugation and atrocities by the US, Canada, and Russia
There are lots of questions about various edge cases. They are all irrelevant. This is a question of whether Greenland will become part of America. We will all know when that happens. It will be obvious. Use simple logic. This is not about whether the US will own a building in Greenland. It is about whether Greenland or some meaningful portion of it becomes part of America.
When Trump says he wants to acquire Greenland, he isn’t talking about wanting a square mile of it. Don’t get yourself bogged down - the resolution of this question will be obvious!
I don't know if it will be obvious. How much of Greenland counts as a meaningful portion? What does it mean to be a part of America? I would usually say "let's cross that bridge when/if we come to it", but since you're the biggest yes holder and you're politically in favor of the acquisition, there is a big potential for (possibly unintentional) bias.
@LeeBressler So subjective considerations constitute a significant factor in your resolution? Just say that then. Because, judging by the fact that you have not outlined the "simple logic", I can only conclude it does not exist. Surely, any simple logic can simply be sufficiently explained... but you only reiterated "meaningful portion" when that's literally what the questions were aiming to clarify.
Now, it is possible you have not considered it before. My advice: if prediction markets have taught me anything, it's that you should always be at least twice as specific as what you think the cutoff for obviousness is. Reality is messy. There is a reason why anything administrative is painstaking.
You can make actual money arbitraging this.
Polymarket control 2026
Polymarket control 2027
Kalshi purchase 2029 (same as Quroe's below)
Kalshi control 2029
Note that Kalshi recently made Trump Jr a special advisor. And that the spikes in the kalshi markets are very recent. Which makes me think that none of the kalshi bettors are thinking about the difference between 2026 resolution and 2029 resolution; instead, Kalshi just made the resolution time wayyyy in the future to make sure the smart bettors didn't correct things, so they wouldn't lock up their money. I think the idea is that these odds help Trump out? But I think it's worth a bet that the price will correct before 2029, the people betting it up on Kalshi.... don't seem to be betting this way because they're clever, they seem to be betting this way because they have money and want the price there. And there are lots of manifold markets (here's one) all pointing to the general state of affairs where America doesn't do anything to Greenland.
Personal stake: I currently have about $200 "no" on the Kalshi markets only. I will likely do more later, and don't intend to update this comment.
@Lilemont I'm not sure what you're seeing, but the first market I listed is at 16% and the last one is at 38%. If you expect it to mainly happen this year if it's gonna happen (say, at most 10% chance it happens after this year) then that's still a very sweet 12% there for the taking - You either profit 100c in polymarket from it happening, or you sell the "no" kalshi shares when they pay out 90c or more in Jan 2027. Net cost is 16 + (100 - 38) = 78c per pair of shares (one poly, one kalshi).
@Lilemont Ah, I see!
That one is still wayyyy too high. It is only for purchase events - not military, not independence. It should be strictly lower than this one. (At least, that's the way I read it, always read the rules yourself!)
I think there might be a way to buy pairs of shares that effectively sum up to a share of "Greenland is acquired, but not via a purchase, by date ____". If you expect an acquisition, you should look into making yourself a combined bet like that! Those shares should be dirt cheap right now, if not negative price. I think the only issue is again, the resolution times. I haven't run the numbers myself but let me know if you want me to! Personally, I'm not betting that it's gonna be acquired, but you should be able to bet "no" in the "will Greenland be acquired by 2026" market to offset that risk (Not sure, but I think at that point you may end up paying more overall for your shares than if you just straight bet no in the first place).
@DannyqnOht I don't think your explanation for the Jan 21, 2029 resolution date of them wanting to keep out "smart bettors" is better than the more naïve view that it's simply the scheduled end of the Presidential term (up to a day from what I expect is just carelessness on setting the time precisely).
@ShankarSivarajan It's mostly priors on my end. Seems suspicious that the platform focused on the US, with trump junior as an advisor, differed from the crypto platform (polymarket) in an plausibly-deniable way that just happens to likely make the odds go in the direction that the president-who-clearly-puts-pressure-on-the-media wants it to look like.