I like this idea

@LeeBressler Lee woke up this morning and chose violence.

@LeeBressler I don't think you should be the second-largest YES holder on this market in case something ambiguous happens, like Trump claiming that he's 'acquired' it or whatever

Now he's realised he has the power to change google maps anything could happen 🤣

@MalachiteEagle I appreciate that comment but I’m not going to do Some unethical self-serving resolution. I think the resolution here will be clear - like either all of Greenland will become American or some portion of it will. Or none. But I don’t think it will be a vague outcome.

@LeeBressler maybe the description could be improved, to give a clearer definition of what 'acquired' means. Like what if the US sends a destroyer to Greenland and then Trump declares mission accomplished but Greenland is still considered under the sovereignty of Denmark by the rest of the world?

@LeeBressler I think that there are many scenarios where the resolution would be controversial

@LeeBressler What if the US starts giving out Greenlanders US passports unilaterally?

@MalachiteEagle I think it means either Greenland becomes a US territory. - or some portion of it does. Or the US acquires some chunk of land there. That doesn’t mean Harvard University sets up a science lab there. It means the US Gov or one of its constituent agencies owns land there

@LeeBressler I think you're misunderstanding what I'm saying. What do you mean by 'owns'?

@MalachiteEagle well for example, Puerto Rico is a US territory. Guam is a US territory. But by contrast, America does not own, say, Germany. I don’t think we need to overthink this

@LeeBressler I disagree. For example, who do you consider owns the Panama Canal? Who owns Taiwan?

@traders Please weigh in here

@LeeBressler You haven't answered the question about what happens if the US e.g. sends a destroyer to Greenland and unilaterally declares ownership. How would you resolve the question then?

@LeeBressler what happens if they give some gold bars to the Danish embassy and says "that's the payment"

@MalachiteEagle or to pick a less current example, who owned Hans Island during the Whisky War?

@MalachiteEagle maybe we need another market for whether Greenland (or part of it) will be a disputed territory during Trump's term.

@Fion personally, I think:

• If Trump claims unilaterally that Greenland is part of the USA but nothing else happens, resolves NO (including if they send a destroyer)

• If the USA takes control of part of Greenland by military force, builds something resembling a base, and has people stationed there, resolves YES.

• Payment is irrelevant

@Fion US already has a base in Greenland though

@MalachiteEagle but do they claim that the land that the base is on is part of the USA?

@Fion no, but I think your points are contradictory? Because that suggests trump could unilaterally declare ownership with nothing else changing, which contradicts your first bullet point. Unless I'm misreading it

@MalachiteEagle you're right, I missed that.

If Trump unilaterally claims some random part of Greenland without occupying it, that's NO. (This is what I meant)

If he says "this base is now American soil" and nobody manages to evict him, then I reckon he's taken part of Greenland by military force and the market resolves YES. What do you think of this scenario?

@Fion I think in practice you'd have a number of soldiers walking around confused for some time and very few people would consider that part of Greenland to belong to the US. If Congress makes it official then that's a step up, but then you're in a situation where the US has effectively committed an act of war against its ally Denmark and there is an ongoing conflict

@Fion maybe Trump signing an executive order stating that the territory in Greenland is part of the US? But I don't think the executive branch has the authority there, it has to be ratified by the legislative branch (but not 100% sure)

@MalachiteEagle I think these points are all missing the point. The US already de facto militarily controls Greenland. Payment and/or official ownership is all that matters

@Odoacre but what is "official ownership"?

@MalachiteEagle Is that a trick question ? Greenland is officially a territory of Denmark. To change ownership the DK government needs to relinquish it and give it to someone else.

@Odoacre who officially owns Crimea?

@Odoacre who officially owns Taiwan?

@MalachiteEagle If you ask me, I would answer Ukraine, and Taiwan. But 🤷

@Odoacre but Ukraine doesn't have de facto control of Crimea, and China has not relinquished control of Taiwan 😅

@MalachiteEagle de facto control is not necessary, and it's china that belongs to taiwan :P

@Odoacre hmm a de jure maximalist. Does the US belong to the UK? Do the Canary islands belong to Morocco?

@Odoacre (joking)

@MalachiteEagle I like this game! no, the UK has given up on the US and does not claim it anymore. I am not familiar with the history of the canary islands, but I would be pretty surprised if they were not Spanish

@MalachiteEagle

(joking too)

@Odoacre does Seoul belong to the DPRK?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I’m going to need that dislike button back.

@Predictor whiskey war is a fascinating historical anecdote!

@Predictor

@MalachiteEagle For sure, it was tongue in cheek. We don’t see that referenced often!