Resolves YES if at least one of the tariffs at least as large as stated in this Truth Social post are implemented at the latest by the times detailed in this post on at least one European country for the explicit purposes of acquiring Greenland

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115911344443637897

Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES if the US implements at least 10% tariffs on at least one European country beginning February 1, 2026, or at least 25% tariffs on at least one European country beginning June 1, 2026, explicitly for the purpose of acquiring Greenland. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Trump administration and verified through official trade policy sources such as the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (https://ustr.gov/) or the U.S. Department of Commerce (https://www.commerce.gov/).

The market resolves NO if no such tariffs are implemented by June 1, 2026, or if any implemented tariffs are not explicitly tied to Greenland acquisition.

Background

Trump announced in a Truth Social post that he would impose 10% tariffs on eight European countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland) beginning February 1, 2026, escalating to 25% on June 1 if no deal is reached for the "Complete and Total purchase of Greenland". Greenland is an autonomous territory within Denmark, and the Danish foreign minister has said there is still "fundamental disagreement" with the US about control of Greenland.

Considerations

The U.S. already has a trade framework agreement with the European Union capping tariffs at 15% and an agreement with the United Kingdom capping tariffs on imports at 10%, and it is unclear if the new tariffs would void those deals or be in addition to those rates. Trump's most sweeping tariffs face a landmark test of presidential powers, as the US Supreme Court is set to rule on the implications and legality of Trump's global duties on trade partners.