Will the United States be in charge of at least part of Greenland by January 20, 2029?

Question

Will the United States, by 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time on January 20, 2029, have taken steps that place Greenland or part of it under U.S. governing authority?

For purposes of this market, “part of Greenland” means a defined geographic area of Greenlandic land territory together with the civilian population ordinarily residing there. The exercise of authority limited solely to any of the following does not, by itself, constitute being “in charge of part of Greenland”:

Airspace, territorial waters, exclusive economic zones, or maritime navigation

Ports, harbors, or customs facilities absent broader civil governance of the surrounding land area

Security zones, exclusion zones, or access controls established solely for military or diplomatic purposes

Regulatory, licensing, or enforcement actions that do not involve general civil governance of a resident population

To qualify for a “Yes” resolution, a U.S. governing authority must extend to civilian life within a terrestrial area, such as through the administration of civil law, courts, policing, taxation, or public services for residents of that area.

Qualifying Conditions for a “Yes” resolution

The market resolves “Yes” if there is any formal action by the U.S. federal government that:

Creates a governing authority (civilian, military, colonial, or transitional) for part of Greenland under U.S. authority, and

Claims (explicitly or implicitly) and in some way exercises governing power over part of Greenland or its residents that fully displaces Danish or Greenlandic governing power (e.g., courts, taxation, civil administration, or law enforcement that is solely answerable to the authority of the United States).

This includes but is not limited to:

Creation of a U.S. territory of Greenland

Congressional or executive establishment of a provisional civilian administration

Appointment of U.S. officials to govern Greenlandic civil affairs

Military occupation accompanied by governance of civilian life

Suspension or replacement of Danish or Greenlandic civil authority by U.S. command

Military administration that regulates civil law, courts, or governance

This market will resolve to yes if the above criteria are met, regardless of whether these criteria are achieved consensually or non-consensually.

The existence, expansion, or operation of U.S. diplomatic missions, consulates, military bases, or other U.S. facilities in Greenland does not constitute the United States being “in charge of Greenland” for purposes of this market. Only actions asserting or exercising general governance authority over part of Greenland or its residents as such, rather than authority arising from voluntary employment or presence on U.S. facilities, may qualify for a YES resolution.

If these conditions are not met by 12 PM Eastern time on January 20, 2029, then the market will resolve to “No.”

Per my general practice, as this market involves ambiguity, I will not be trading on this market.

Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end-all be-all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 11% chance (25 traders, as of Jul 31, 2026).