Conditional on Trump buying Greenland, how much will the US pay?
9
1kαΉ€3471
2029
2%
< $1000
1.6%
$1000-$1 billion
6%
$1-5 billion
8%
$5-10 billion
24%
$10-50 billion
25%
$50-100 billion
18%
$100-500 billion
10%
$500 billion - $1 trillion
5%
> $1 trillion

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the price range that encompasses the final purchase price IF the United States successfully purchases Greenland during Trump's presidency. The price must be officially announced and confirmed by both governments.

Prices denominated in USD.

Purchase prices on the limit of two price bands count toward the lower band.
(For example, a price of $50 billion would count towards the $10-50 billion option.)

The market will resolve N/A if:

  • No purchase occurs before January 2029

  • The purchase is structured in a way that makes the total price unclear (e.g., complex trade agreements or resource-sharing arrangements)

  • The deal includes significant non-monetary components that substantially affect the true value

  • Greenland is taken by force

Market context
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I believe thye best to resolve NO, than N/a

@Areal I don't. I want to elicit the conditional probabilities.

Not even sure what a NO resolution would be given that this is a multiple choice market over prices.

really nice market but frankly I have no idea πŸ˜†

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