Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Trump or his administration takes any military, economic, or political action intended to interfere with Greenland's governance, sovereignty, or territorial status before the end of 2026. This includes but is not limited to: military intervention, economic coercion (targeted tariffs or sanctions), attempted annexation, military occupation, or formal diplomatic pressure to cede control. The market resolves NO if no such interference occurs by December 31, 2026.

Background

Trump has renewed calls for U.S. annexation of Greenland following public comments from Trump and the wife of top adviser Stephen Miller. Trump has previously refused to rule out the use of military or economic force to take Greenland and named Louisiana Republican Gov. Jeff Landry as special envoy to Greenland last month. In a 45-minute phone conversation with Danish PM Frederiksen, Trump stated there is reason to believe he is serious in his statements about his increasing interest in Greenland. Trump reportedly threatened "targeted tariffs" against Denmark.

Greenland's strategic position between Europe and North America makes it a key site for the US ballistic missile defence system, and its mineral wealth is attractive, as the US hopes to reduce its reliance on Chinese exports.

Considerations

Denmark's NATO membership carries with it the implied protection of Article 5 — the promise that an attack on one ally will be treated as an attack on all. However, the U.S. is by far the biggest contributor to NATO and has historically been seen as the ultimate guarantor behind its pledge of mutual self-defense. Denmark's Prime Minister has warned that any bid by the US to take over Greenland will result in the end of the NATO military alliance, stating "If the United States chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops. That is, including our NATO and thus the security that has been provided since the end of the Second World War".