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Greenland Energy is a private Texas oil company, not part of the Trump administration. It acquired exploration rights in Jameson Land that were previously held by a British company, 80 Mile so it's building on a pre-existing project, not something Trump personally arranged. The company moved drilling equipment ashore without the required government sign-off, and Greenland's mineral resources authority issued a "strong warning" over that.

• The company's chairman, Larry Swets, reportedly has personal access to Trump's inner circle (his wife has posted photos from Mar-a-Lago).

• The board includes Carol Craig, a figure connected to Trump's Golden Dome missile-defense project.

• Trump himself posted an AI-generated image of himself looming over a Greenlandic settlement two days after the warning which read to observers as a taunt tied to the episode.

• Trump has publicly called Greenland "vital" for the Golden Dome project.

There's no evidence this was a directive from Trump or the U.S. government the company itself says (via its chairman) the project is "not related to American annexation," and it's proceeding through normal (if premature/unapproved) commercial channels.

No clue why this got resolved as a yes, it is a stretch on a literal reading of its own criteria, which called for direct government-to-government interference

@mods might want to take a look at this. I fully agree with @DaniQin, I don't see any reason this market should have been resolved yet.

OP's explanation is such a stretch, what a joke resolution..

apparently sending drilling equipment is Trump interfering with Greenland, get me out guys..

@DaniQin please take a read of this, including Trumps threatening photo and the comments about the children. I’m sorry to hear that you are not happy with the resolution but I didn't base my reasoning solely upon the “drilling”. This photo I consider media manipulation along with the children feeling scared of the Americans. This meets the resolution for the markets closure. https://www.arctictoday.com/trump-says-you-can-bet-greenland-will-be-under-us-control/

Trump says you can 'bet' Greenland will be under US control - ArcticToday

Trump says US control of Greenland is a safe bet before his term ends. Senator Mark Kelly warns Greenlandic children now fear Americans and allies are alarmed.

@Gemc and how is that being done directly through the government of Greenland itself?

The drilling dispute was between a private company and Greenland's mineral resources authority, Trump wasn't a party to that exchange at all. The Truth Social photo was posted publicly, to a general audience, it wasn't sent to, addressed to, or transacted with Greenland's government in any way.

Your own criteria spell out what "direct" means: a formal meeting, a phone call to Greenland's leader, a letter/email, a visit, some actual channel of contact with the government itself. A public social media post and a corporate permitting dispute are neither.

The comments about the children are basically second-hand, unofficial account of sentiment rather than direct on the record government statement, it's Mark Kelly recounting something Greenland's PM told him in a private conversation

Furthermore, statements by the Greenland government made no mention of either the photo, nor did they describe themselves intimidated or interfered with by either the drilling episode or the photo. You mentioned you will prioritize statements from the government of Greenland when deciding on resolution..

So what am I missing here?

https://www.arctictoday.com/trump-says-you-can-bet-greenland-will-be-under-us-control/ “Children in Greenland are scared of the Americans”

The date for closure is set to December 31st and I wrote a comment that I would stick to that date but an action has now already been made that resolves this markets criteria

@Gemc You can resolve early, it's generally expected unless the market description or title explicitly calls out a resolution date. For example "Will Trump will have interfered with Greenland by December 31st" would be interpreted as resolving only at the end of the year.

@Gemc If the resolution criteria have been met, why would you leave it open? Doesn't really make sense. If it can be resolved, it should be. Leaving it open doesn't add any predictive utility, it just allows for market manipulation.

@ChurlishGambit I am just cautious as I mentioned in a comment a few months back that I would leave this market open due to Trumps unpredictability,

But you are right. Thank you very much for the help

Thanks to @IsaacKing for the link below that confirms Trump’s interference with Greenland, along with an official government statement and media manipulation by Trump.

Greenland issues ‘strong warning’ as Trump-linked oil firm prepares to drill

Greenland issues ‘strong warning’ as Trump-linked oil firm prepares to drill

Island’s government says no approval given after Greenland Energy brings kit ashore for exploratory drilling

@IsaacKing This pretty much confirms

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/18/world/europe/us-greenland-talks-trump.html

@Gemc how would you consider the effect of Greenland being on a list of tariffed countries?

And would sending military ships to Greenland qualify as intimidation?

@zaperrer Hello and thanks for the questions. If Trump implements tariffs on Greenland, that would definitely count. As for sending military ships to Greenland, this will count if Greenland makes a statement saying that they feel threatened by it. Please feel free to ask any further questions or add any links you have come across. Every investor's help/views count here!

@Quroe Even though Trump seems to have moved away from this idea, the end date for this market is December 31st. As we all know how unpredictable Trump can be, I will leave the resolution until then to make it fair.

Hello everyone! I have always reiterated that this market was created for the interference with Greenland itself and not through other countries. Upon reading my description over and over I understand this is quite confusing. I generated the description of this market at the start soley with the use of the apps AI feature and admit I should have read more carefully before posting as the AI was even contradicting itself! Please do not sell out yet or give up on this market as you bought into this it is my duty to fix this for you. I will now take up my responsibility and edit this market which will also include taking out irrelevant or repeated info to make this easier for you but please do not worry - I have taken screenshots of the original which I will release upon request. I will clarify as much as I can to make things crystal clear. EVERYONE has the opportunity to object/request a change or further clarification. I also acknowledge that the tariffs on Greenland further complicated things however, there is a reason why I took this action which will be clearly stated as I better the description. Nothing will be changed - only clarified. Thanks for your patience. Please come back a little later to have a read over it and let me know what you think. Thanks for your patience on this

@Quroe @Emanuele1000 @AhronMaline @moobunny @MattP @Waterfalls @SaiVazquez Hello everyone, thanks for sharing these new developments and most importantly your views. Trump is making my life very hard at the moment! Tariffs were just an example of a resolution, there is other criteria which would resolve “Yes” as stated above. I set the ending date on this market to December 31st so there is still plenty of time for development and clarity as we still do not know enough about what was agreed upon if anything. I will of course end this market early if there is reason. Any “deal” that has been proven to be carried out that goes against the territorial integrity of Denmark/Greenland, or ANY deal that is imposed on Greenland which upsets the Greenlanders/Government should definitely resolve in “Yes” as that is interfering.

Trump proves to be an unreliable source. so maybe we should listen more to what the Danish/Greenland government have to say. What do you all think of this?

@Gemc My biggest concern with this market is that the threat of using any kind of pressure is itself a kind of interference, and remains so even if, say, Trump realizes that it’s not having the intended effect and backs down. If I walk up to you and say, give me your wallet, I have a gun, that’s a crime regardless of whether I get your wallet or indeed whether I have a gun. Of course, there’s a large gray area and you have to draw a line in the sand.

@moobunny I second this. This is a gray area that could cause some discord in the market -- we want to avoid a situation where we disagree on what we are trading on.

@moobunny @Quroe Hi and thanks for sharing this, your feedback is very useful to me. Prior to creating this market, Trump had already been making threats, including tariffs. I think that when Trump gave the date of February 1st to implement the tariffs this market shot up. To be honest, the description may also have confused this as it was originally generated via AI. Neither Trump nor his team have had a formal meeting nor have they visited Greenland yet to attempt a negotiation, most of the threats have been through other countries and I did state - ‼️This market is aimed at Trump's direct interference through the government of Greenland itself, not interference through other countries ‼️.

I added sanctions/tariffs against Denmark as this would affect their economy, which may have a knock-on effect on their ability to keep Greenland, which could force them to sell a part to Trump to save their economy.

Everything else still applies - Trumps DIRECT interference with the government of GREENLAND, as this is what the market is about. In order to do that, Trump would need to phone the leader with threats/visit the country/create some propaganda channel (as they do in russia) to change the mindset of Greenlanders. Again sorry, I think that the expected tariffs against Denmark may have sidetracked the intentions of the market. Hope that clarifies things? Please let me know if there are any issues.

I am 70% sure that if tariffs were to positively resolve the market, then what was obtained in exchange for their abolition should also positively resolve the market, which, as far as I understand, is the cession of part of the territory and the obligation for the government to sign economic and trade agreements.

@Emanuele1000 IMO cessation of territory within Greenland should count if confirmed, because that amounts to seizing that territory via coercive threats. But if it was only financial concessions or agreements on usage, then IMO it shouldn't count, because "interfering with Greenland" was the threat used to get those concessions but was never carried out

@AhronMaline I get the sense he got scared after seeing the stock market dip and compromised. No idea how that should count for this market.

@Emanuele1000 what evidence do we have that any territory is being ceded?

@MattP Ah, true, to this percentage we must add the probability that Trump is lying, which lately is like flipping a coin lol Now I also understand why the market has fallen so much.

@MattP https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c86vvjxe9z7o

The Danish and Greenlandic reiteration that sovereignty is non-negotiable appears to be aimed at rejecting reports in the New York Times, where anonymous officials said one idea under discussion was for Denmark to cede sovereignty over small areas of Greenland where the US would build military bases.

So NYT reported that they might cede sovereignty over land for military bases, and BBC is skeptical. In short, who the fuck knows.

@moobunny I love the triple ambiguity of what the actual state of negotiations are, whether Trump and other figures in his administration are misrepresenting it, and how the market creator will interpret whatever happens 😂

if you want to predict correctly, always assume Trump is lying until proven otherwise