US acquires part of Greenland in 2026?

Question

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT, the United States acquires sovereignty or primary/exclusive jurisdiction or control over any defined land territory in Greenland through a binding legal instrument (e.g., treaty, enacted legislation, or executive action), including via force. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

Only binding actions that unambiguously transfer sovereignty or establish primary/exclusive U.S. jurisdiction qualify, even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. Non-binding statements, negotiations, MOUs, basing/access agreements, SOFA/COFA-type arrangements, leases, or commercial concessions do not qualify. Any U.S. rights or control existing at market creation (Jan 7, 2026, 3:11 PT) will not count.

The primary resolution source will be official statements or legal instruments from the U.S., Denmark, or Greenland, with a consensus of credible reporting used if necessary.

Update 2026-01-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Extraterritorial military/diplomatic bases:

Standard military bases, embassies, SOFA-style arrangements, basing rights, or access agreements with extraterritorial status → NO

A Guantánamo-style arrangement (binding legal instrument establishing exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction over defined territory where local law does not apply without U.S. consent) → YES

Rule of thumb: Access/presence/extraterritorial privileges = NO; Sovereignty or exclusive territorial jurisdiction = YES

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (142 traders, as of Apr 2, 2026).