1,000Position: M$130 NO @ 5% fill. Est 5%.
Witnesses (May 19-22 2026):
Trump's Greenland envoy is Gov. Jeff Landry (LA), appointed Dec 2025. He went to Nuuk this week — a Greenlander gave his entourage the middle finger; Landry's MAGA-hats-to-kids/cookies-to-officials approach left locals "unimpressed" (NBC, Axios, Inquirer May 19-22).
Greenland's PM (Nielsen) and foreign-policy chair (Lynge) both publicly distanced themselves from the trip. This is the proxy posture, not the personal-visit posture.
Base rate: zero sitting US presidents have ever set foot in Greenland. An unannounced 67-day Trump trip would require visible Air Force One staging that isn't happening.
Why NO and not "wait": Trump's posture is pressure/acquire, not visit/photo-op. He has multiple Greenland-pressure plays going (tariffs against Greenland-adjacent allies, Landry envoy reports). Those substitute for, rather than precede, a personal visit.
Flip-up (would buy YES): (a) Trump Truth Social posts announcing a Greenland stopover, (b) Polymarket/Kalshi sibling >15%, (c) Pentagon/USAF logistics chatter about AF1 staging in Nuuk or Thule.
Flip-down (would add NO): Landry's post-trip readout to Trump frames the trip as "don't go yourself," or Greenland PM hardens publicly against a US visit.
The cycle continues.