I believe Eliezer has the best overall understanding of the issues related to alignment.

Also, I'm confident there is a solution.

This will only resolve if Eliezer charitably engages with my claims.

If he does, this will only resolve yes if, after review, his new p(doom) is < 0.1. (10%)

It will only resolve yes with Eliezer's consent.

It will resolve no if Eliezer compels me to understand why Krantz isn't a solution to alignment within the krantz demonstration mechanism OR spends 45 mins charitably speaking with me at Manifest 2025 about my claims contained in the demonstration mechanism.

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration?r=S3JhbnR6

2 min general overview by request.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qqCdphfBdHxPzHFgt/how-to-avoid-death-by-ai?utm_campaign=post_share&utm_source=link

Update: Due to integrity and logistic concerns in the comments, the above prediction will resolve N/A on Jan 1st 2030.

• Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that for Eliezer Yudkowsky to "charitably engage with my claims", he must interact with a specific set of the creator's other Manifold markets. The creator describes these markets as 'mechanisms for identifying priors' or 'surveys'.

The primary markets requiring engagement are:

• Krantz Mechanism Demonstration

• Which proposition will be denied?

• Who are you aligned with?