Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?
8
56
Ṁ143Ṁ190
2033
64%
chance
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1W
1M
ALL
10 years from today, December 27th 2023.
My current p(doom) is around 50%. p(doom) for the purpose of this question is the probability that humanity goes extinct, or all human agency gets taken away (enslavement or eternal torture scenarios count, if it applies to every alive human) because of AI.
Note that this question isn't asking about whether doom will actually happen, but whether in 10 years I will predict that it will happen.
See the same market for 20 years:
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Note that unlike for the 20 years market, it seems plausible that doom happens between 10 and 20 years out, so i might still have a decent p(doom) even if my beliefs model of the world don't change much til then, other than updating on staying-alive-til-2033
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