Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?
Plus
17
Ṁ3822026
33%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Eliezer's market
has a higher chance than the current (2023-09-27) 21%, someday in the third quarter of 2026. To avoid market distortions, I randomly chose the resolution date and put it in SHA-256 with some added "salt".
Here is the hash: 8571baa908bb59f421b05c8731ff418c3c3db2932719c1c2bd29b68c2cdfc8ce
This market closes on 2026-06-30.
I may resolve this market N/A if someone convinces me that it will predictably cause significant distortion to the primary market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@Metastable Either way is fine. The difference is how certain you can be it's a real change in opinion, rather than in translation from opinion to estimate. Then again, I'd be hard pressed to set a non-arbitrary tolerance.
I'll bet on the opinion change regardless.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
27% chance
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
61% chance
Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?
15% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
31% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?
63% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
14% chance
If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)
16% chance
Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?
44% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2024?
29% chance
Eliezer Yudkowsky p(Doom) stock
69