Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?
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33%
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Resolves YES if Eliezer's market
has a higher chance than the current (2023-09-27) 21%, someday in the third quarter of 2026. To avoid market distortions, I randomly chose the resolution date and put it in SHA-256 with some added "salt".
Here is the hash: 8571baa908bb59f421b05c8731ff418c3c3db2932719c1c2bd29b68c2cdfc8ce
This market closes on 2026-06-30.
I may resolve this market N/A if someone convinces me that it will predictably cause significant distortion to the primary market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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