Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?
17
1kṀ3822026
33%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Eliezer's market
has a higher chance than the current (2023-09-27) 21%, someday in the third quarter of 2026. To avoid market distortions, I randomly chose the resolution date and put it in SHA-256 with some added "salt".
Here is the hash: 8571baa908bb59f421b05c8731ff418c3c3db2932719c1c2bd29b68c2cdfc8ce
This market closes on 2026-06-30.
I may resolve this market N/A if someone convinces me that it will predictably cause significant distortion to the primary market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)
21% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
10% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?
58% chance
Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
35% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
23% chance
What will be the average P(doom) of AI researchers in 2025?
19% chance
Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
18% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?
30% chance
Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
6% chance
Eliezer Yudkowsky p(Doom) stock
93