Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

Ṁ1kṀ2.9k

resolved Aug 10

Resolved

ALL

Resolves YES if Eliezer's market

has a higher chance than the current (2023-09-27) 21%, someday in the third quarter of 2026. To avoid market distortions, I randomly chose the resolution date and put it in SHA-256 with some added "salt".
Here is the hash: 8571baa908bb59f421b05c8731ff418c3c3db2932719c1c2bd29b68c2cdfc8ce
This market closes on 2026-06-30.
I may resolve this market N/A if someone convinces me that it will predictably cause significant distortion to the primary market.

Update 2026-08-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has revealed the hashed resolution date as 2026-07-04 and is resolving the market to NO.

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The string that went into SHA-256 was Metastable1$$$-2026-07-04

(took me some time to find it, sorry for that). Eliezer's market displays 12% for 4th July, so I'm resolving this market as NO.

Like I said a month ago, all of the doom markets trend down over time.

All of these doom markets seem to trend down over time, presumably because of normal people signing up for Manifold, as well as the obvious fact that doom continues to not have happened.

So even with his NA resolution, it seems virtually certain it will be lower.

Does a single percent point count, or will you add some tolerance for noise?

@Vincent Yes, single percent point will count. I'm open to hearing arguments why it shouldn't.

@Metastable Either way is fine. The difference is how certain you can be it's a real change in opinion, rather than in translation from opinion to estimate. Then again, I'd be hard pressed to set a non-arbitrary tolerance.

I'll bet on the opinion change regardless.