20 years from today, December 27th 2023.

My current p(doom) is around 50%. p(doom) for the purpose of this question is the probability that humanity goes extinct, or all human agency gets taken away (enslavement or eternal torture scenarios count, if it applies to every alive human) because of AI.

Note that this question isn't asking about whether doom will actually happen, but whether in 20 years I will predict that it will happen.

Same question for in 10 years:

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

## Related questions

## Related questions

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?

63% chance

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

25% chance

Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?

20% chance

Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

33% chance

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

20% chance

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?

39% chance

Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?

49% chance

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2024?

29% chance

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?

41% chance

Will the next president state a P(doom)?