Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)? | Manifold

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

Plus

18

Ṁ566

2043

31%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

20 years from today, December 27th 2023.

My current p(doom) is around 50%. p(doom) for the purpose of this question is the probability that humanity goes extinct, or all human agency gets taken away (enslavement or eternal torture scenarios count, if it applies to every alive human) because of AI.

Note that this question isn't asking about whether doom will actually happen, but whether in 20 years I will predict that it will happen.

Same question for in 10 years:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Technology

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

If I had the spare mana I would bet NO. The next 20 years are the scariest time it seems like

I expect this to be low. Most of my probability mass is on doom before the 20 years mark, so if it doesn't come to pass within 20 years we might be good? but also 10% is pretty low

Related questions

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2024?

Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?

Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?

What's My P(doom) in 2025?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

Related questions

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2024?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?

Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?

What's My P(doom) in 2025?

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules