Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?
20
1kṀ636
2043
35%
chance

20 years from today, December 27th 2023.

My current p(doom) is around 50%. p(doom) for the purpose of this question is the probability that humanity goes extinct, or all human agency gets taken away (enslavement or eternal torture scenarios count, if it applies to every alive human) because of AI.

Note that this question isn't asking about whether doom will actually happen, but whether in 20 years I will predict that it will happen.

Same question for in 10 years:

Technology
AI
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?
58% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?
30% chance
What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?
41% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
23% chance
Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
6% chance
Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?
33% chance
Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?
18% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
8% chance
Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027
22% chance
Will the VC 50 Years meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3?
18% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy