If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

349

17kṀ170k

2200

15%

Eliezer finally listens to Krantz.

15%

We create a truth economy. https://manifold.markets/Krantz/is-establishing-a-truth-economy-tha?r=S3JhbnR6

12%

Yudkowsky is trying to solve the wrong problem using the wrong methods based on a wrong model of the world derived from poor thinking and fortunately all of his mistakes have failed to cancel out

AIs will not have utility functions (in the same sense that humans do not), their goals such as they are will be relatively humanlike, and they will be "computerish" and generally weakly motivated compared to humans.

Alignment is not properly solved, but core human values are simple enough that partial alignment techniques can impart these robustly. Despite caring about other things, it is relatively cheap for AGI to satisfy human values.

Other

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

Humans become transhuman through other means before AGI happens

Power dynamics stay multi-polar. Partly easy copying of SotA performance, bigger projects need high coordination, and moderate takeoff speed. And "military strike on all society" remains an abysmal strategy for practically all entities.

Almost all human values are ex post facto rationalizations and enough humans survive to do what they always do

1.9%

AGI is never built (indefinite global moratorium)

1.5%

AIs never develop coherent goals

1.4%

"Corrigibility" is a bit more mathematically straightforward than was initially presumed, in the sense that we can expect it to occur, and is relatively easy to predict, even under less-than-ideal conditions.

1.2%

An AI that is not fully superior to humans launches a failed takeover, and the resulting panic convinces the people of the world to unite to stop any future AI development.

1.1%

A lot of humans participate in a slow scalable oversight-style system, which is pivotally used/solves alignment enough

Duplicate of https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence with user-submitted answers. An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.

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