Eliezer Yudkowsky p(Doom) stock | Manifold

Eliezer Yudkowsky p(Doom) stock

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11

Ṁ636

2501

69

expected

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ALL

A stock meant to track how the market perceives Eliezer Yudkowsky's current p(AI Doom) at any given moment (from zero to 100 percent).

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Why is this capped at 100%? 🤣

Related questions

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Eliezer Yudkowsky Stock

Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?

Eliezer Yudkowsky stock (permanent)

If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

P(Doom) - Yoshua Bengio

'Not Eliezer Yudkowsky' stock. Permanent.

Related questions

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

Eliezer Yudkowsky Stock

Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?

P(Doom) - Yoshua Bengio

Eliezer Yudkowsky stock (permanent)

'Not Eliezer Yudkowsky' stock. Permanent.