Eliezer Yudkowsky p(Doom) stock | Manifold

Eliezer Yudkowsky p(Doom) stock

18

Ṁ370Ṁ1.4k

2501

90

expected

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6H

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A stock meant to track how the market perceives Eliezer Yudkowsky's current p(AI Doom) at any given moment (from zero to 100 percent).

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Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Eliezer Yudkowsky Stock

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

Will Yudkowsky substantially lower his P(doom) in response to Cammarata's "Neural Networks Are Already Clean"?

Will "Yudkowsky on "Don't use p(doom)"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?

Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

What's the p(doom) of monkeys?

Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027

Related questions

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Eliezer Yudkowsky Stock

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

Will Yudkowsky substantially lower his P(doom) in response to Cammarata's "Neural Networks Are Already Clean"?

Will "Yudkowsky on "Don't use p(doom)"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?

Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

What's the p(doom) of monkeys?

Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027