Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
30
135
1k
2040
33%
chance

Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text. I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases.

P(doom|something else) is not P(doom).

He must explicitly specify a number that is less than 50 or that his number is less than 50 for this market to resolve YES.

Same as this market, but 50% and 2040

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Note: in the worlds where we survive, he will have been forced to update by 2040, so it will necessarily be less than the current >97%

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