Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?
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23%
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Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text. I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases.
P(doom|something else) is not P(doom).
He must explicitly specify a number that is less than 50 or that his number is less than 50 for this market to resolve YES.
Same as this market, but 50% and 2040
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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