What will happen during the first New Glenn launch?
➕
Plus
26
Ṁ6620
resolved Jan 17
Resolved
YES
Scrub/delay 1 hour before launch
Resolved
YES
Main engine cut off
Resolved
YES
Stage separation
Resolved
YES
Second stage engine start
Resolved
YES
Fairing separation
Resolved
YES
Second stage engine cut off
Resolved
YES
Second stage reaches orbit
Resolved
NO
Payload deploy

The market will resolve upon confirmation of each answer by Blue Origin (either through social media, press release, or official livestream). For it to count as the "first launch," New Glenn must liftoff from the pad.

  • Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - Resolution Update:

    • The market will be resolved as YES due to a 30-minute delay. (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - Any scrub or delay counts. (AI summary of creator comment)

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bought Ṁ630 NO

Payload deploy resolves No — they weren't planning to anyway.

sold Ṁ50 NO

They haven't scrubbed (yet) but what qualifies as a "delay"? They pushed the countdown 30 min. It has to be a delay to outside of their planned launch window, right?

@DanHomerick Any scrub or delay counts!
Here's official confirmation from Blue: https://x.com/blueorigin/status/1878682371291271519

@Kire_ well, I guess I sold my position in the nick of time, then :D

Planning to resolve this YES due to the 30 minute delay.

bought Ṁ250 NO

The pathfinder will remain onboard New Glenn’s second stage for the duration of an expected six-hour mission.

https://www.blueorigin.com/news/blue-ring-pathfinder-payload?utm_source=chatgpt.com

reposted

First launch is now NET Jan 13 at 1:00 am EST

How did this market not include first stage landing? 😭

bought Ṁ10 NO

When referring to the 'engine cutoff' milestones, those are at the planned times, correct? I assume a engine failure or premature shutdown would result in No.

What if 1 or more engines is shutdown, will that resolve to No?

@LarsOsborne Each milestone will be resolved based on confirmation (or lack thereof) from Blue Origin.

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