Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if New Glenn completes more orbital launches than Falcon 9 during the calendar year 2030. The count includes all orbital-class launches by each rocket, regardless of mission type or outcome (successful or failed launches both count).

Considerations

New Glenn is a newly operational rocket with only two flights as of December 2025, while Falcon 9 is a mature vehicle with an established high launch cadence. SpaceX's Falcon 9 growth may be reaching an end as it transitions launches to Starship, with 2025 and 2026 anticipated to be the highest Falcon launch rates. The comparison depends heavily on Blue Origin's ability to dramatically scale New Glenn production and launch frequency by 2030, while Falcon 9 rates potentially decline.