To be successful, New Glenn's first stage must land on a barge or on land and remain upright. If New Glenn flies without recovery, or has a controlled splashdown in the Ocean, this question will defer until a barge or land recovery is attempted. The market will resolve upon confirmation of the above criteria by Blue Origin (either through social media, press release, or official livestream).

• Update 2025-12-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Recovery Attempt:

  • If the rocket fails before stage separation, it still counts as a recovery attempt.