Which happens first? Starliner-2, Psyche arrival, Artemis III, or New Glenn 15?

1kṀ1755

2029

35%

Starliner-2 launch

Psyche arrives at Psyche-16

Artemis III launch

49%

New Glenn flight 15 launch

1.9%

None of the above

Update 2025-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the Artemis III option:
- A mission will count as Artemis III if it is officially designated as such, even if the nature of that mission changes radically from its original or current plans.

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So if they change the Artemis plans and there is still an Artemis III mission but the nature is radically different then it still counts as Artemis III?

@ChristopherRandles Correct.

This market is wild right now

@traders What's the right way to count "Psyche arrives"? Should we require successful orbital insertion? Any flyby? Flyby with images and/or data?

I'd say captured by its gravity? That's how I know I've arrived somewhere when I go interplanetary, tbh. So not just flyby, otherwise taking a plane to fly over a country would be the same as visiting that country.

Works for me!

For "None of the above" the Starliner, Artemis, and New Glenn programs all have to be cancelled and Psyche has to miss the asteroid, right?

Hmm. My probablities of each fail:

P(Starliner) = 0.35

P(Psyche) = 0.02

P(Artemis) = 0.12

P(NewGlenn) = 0.05

P(all) = 0.35*0.02*0.12*0.05 = 0.000042

Though I'm treating them as independent. If nuclear war breaks out, they'll all move together (Psyche likely needs a trajectory adjustment to reach the asteroid).

Still, I think I could safely bet no. Not that it'd be a good investment, once opportunity costs are considered.

For "None of the above" the Starliner, Artemis, and New Glen programs all have to be cancelled and Psyche has to miss the asteroid, right?

Correct. It's there for completeness, not because it's a likely result. I'm not a fan of N/A results, and especially not on markets where we already have four options. A fifth doesn't hurt things much.

AIUI, Psyche will need a couple mid-course corrections, almost certainly including one after the Mars flyby.

I suppose there are other ways a launch could fail to happen, as well. Apollo 1 never launched, but later missions did.

Given that (AFAIK) there aren't yet numbered New Glenn missions, I don't think that makes sense for that option -- we're talking about the 15th flight, not a specific mission with the number 15 in its name.

Let me know if that interpretation seems wrong or you have suggestions for improvement.

What counts as Artemis III here?

I think the best answer is just "does NASA call it Artemis III". (Artemis 3 or other styling is also fine.) Other suggestions welcome, though. My main intent here is to replicate the twitter poll.