By when will New Glenn first launch with 9 engines?

Question

Blue Origin is planning to launch an upgraded version of New Glenn with nine BE-4s.

Resolution criteria:

Only first stage engines count toward the nine. Upper stage engines are irrelevant. The timezone of the launch pad will be used. This will resolve YES if the rocket lifts off the launch pad; success is irrelevant. Dates are during or before.

See also:

When will New Glenn 9x4 reach orbit for the first time?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2028 Q4, followed by 2028 Q3 and 2028 Q2 are most likely. See the market for live updates (11 traders, as of May 29, 2026).

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