Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)
72
1kṀ17k
2027
67%
chance
12

Based on this article:

https://www.theregister.com/AMP/2023/11/23/blue_origin_glenn_rocket_mars/

For this market I’m defining “Reaching Mars” as being captured into an orbit around Mars.

  • The orbit has to be stable

  • OR if it’s unstable it has to be descending towards the Martian surface

  • If it’s unstable and gets slingshot out into interplanetary space then it will not count.

I’ll indefinitely push market close out until this resolves Yes or No.

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