Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)
Dec 1

Based on this article:


For this market I’m defining “Reaching Mars” as being captured into an orbit around Mars.

  • The orbit has to be stable

  • OR if it’s unstable it has to be descending towards the Martian surface

  • If it’s unstable and gets slingshot out into interplanetary space then it will not count.

I’ll indefinitely push market close out until this resolves Yes or No.

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With the rumours of Blue Origin acquiring ULA, and subsequently Vulcan I want to know if you guys think it’s fair to include Vulcan as a possible vehicle that reaches Mars for BO side? My inclination is no, based on how I have worded the question but it does make for a dynamic markwt

@NGK assuming New Glenn has always been in the title I think it would be a bad change

@NGK very much not, since the market as written refers to specific rockets rather than the launch companies generically.

If you want to ask the general question about any rocket owned by Blue Origin, that's a different market. If you do make a market about that, be sure to clarify that ownership is what counts rather than branding, so that it's clear Vulcan would count even if an acquisition doesn't change the names of anything.

predicts YES

A bit of relevant info re whether or not ESCAPADE launches August next year as planned:

Rob Lillis (the principal investigator for ESCAPADE) has said "It hasn’t launched yet and we are concerned about that. But, having seen the Blue Origin facility at Cape Canaveral, I was much less concerned after seeing all the work they’ve done. I’m confident they will likely be ready for the launch of ESCAPADE."
Source: https://spacenews.com/escapade-confident-in-planned-2024-new-glenn-launch/

And while the above quote honestly doesn't make me super confident they'll meet this year's launch window; it's worth noting that even if ESCAPADE doesn't launch till 2026, there's a decent chance they'll still beat SpaceX simply because SpaceX will be focused on Starlink, recovery & reuse, HLS, Dear Moon etc; and unless they get a contract for a Mars mission (which don't come up very often, NASA have only sent a total of 3 missions to Mars (orbit or surface) in the past 10 years) they simply won't have any reason to send a mission to Mars (the last we've heard about Elon's plans for Mars is an uncrewed landing in 2027 which even if doesn't get delayed would still be after ESCAPADE).

Which means the bigger question (for me at least) is simply whether the ESCAPADE launch is successful when it does eventually happen, because if ESCAPADE is lost it's unlikely Blue Origin will have another opportunity for a mission to Mars for a while after.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

So based on the article I guess the question is whether a spacecraft launched on New Glenn (like EscaPADE) will reach Mars before anything launched by SpaceX?

Or does it have to be the New Glenn upper stage itself?

predicts YES

@dp9000 Yes any payload launched by New Glenn would suffice.

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