Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on whether a Labour parliamentarian (MP or peer) joins Reform UK during January 2026. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Reform UK or the Labour Party confirming a defection. The specific answer selected will depend on the defector's position at the time of joining:

• No: No Labour parliamentarian joins Reform in January

• Yes, member of the House of Lords: A Labour peer defects

• Yes, member of the House of Commons: A Labour MP defects

• Yes, Junior Minister: A Labour MP or peer holding a junior ministerial position defects

• Yes, member of the Cabinet: A Labour Cabinet member defects

If multiple Labour parliamentarians defect in January, the market resolves to the highest-ranking position among all defectors, according to the above order

Background

Reform UK's Chairman has revealed that they are expecting "imminent" defections from the Labour Party, with "many people" jumping the Labour ship to join Nigel Farage's force "across all levels", from local to parliamentary. Nigel Farage stated he has been talking to "many, many other senior Conservative figures, and incidentally some Labour ones as well," adding "There'll be a Labour defection next week." This market focuses specifically on whether such a defection occurs during January 2026.

Considerations

The market's answers are structured hierarchically by seniority. If a Labour parliamentarian defects, only the answer corresponding to their highest position will resolve yes, while all other answers resolve no. For example, if a junior minister defects, the market resolves to "Yes, Junior Minister" and not to "Yes, member of the House of Commons."

• Update 2026-01-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Ex-MPs (former MPs who are no longer serving) do not count - the parliamentarian must be currently serving in their Labour position at the time of defection to Reform UK.