Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Reform UK's next published manifesto (after their 2024 manifesto "Our Contract with You") does not include a commitment to proportional representation or a referendum on PR. It resolves NO if the manifesto maintains or reaffirms such a commitment.

Resolution will be determined by examining the official manifesto document published by Reform UK ahead of their next general election campaign. The manifesto should be checked against Reform UK's 2024 manifesto, which called for a referendum on PR.

Background

Reform UK supports electoral reform, favouring a switch to a proportional voting system; in their 2024 manifesto, they called for a referendum on PR. Had the 2024 general election been conducted under PR, Reform UK would likely have been the main beneficiary, with some scenarios giving them around 85 more MPs than they actually won under FPTP, while Labour would have won nearly 200 fewer seats.

Considerations

Reform UK has demonstrated willingness to abandon or modify manifesto commitments post-election. Reform has disavowed a promise made in its manifesto in 2024 to cut taxes by 90 billion pounds, blaming sluggish growth and high debt, and it took only days for Reform to retreat from its promise to deport child migrants. The party's support for PR is partly motivated by electoral self-interest, as smaller parties benefit disproportionately from proportional systems. Any shift in Reform's electoral fortunes or strategic calculations could influence whether they maintain this commitment in future manifestos.

This description was generated by AI.