Resolution criteria

The next UK general election is scheduled to be held no later than 15 August 2029. This market resolves based on who becomes Chancellor of the Exchequer following that election. Resolution will be determined by official UK government sources confirming the Chancellor appointment. If no member of Reform UK becomes Chancellor, the market resolves to "Chancellor after the next general election is not a member of Reform."

Background

Nigel Farage has been Leader of Reform UK since June 2024. In January 2026, former Conservative Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi and former Shadow Lord Chancellor Robert Jenrick joined Reform UK. Zia Yusuf is chairman of the party, with Richard Tice as deputy leader. Reform UK currently has six members of Parliament in the House of Commons. A Bloomberg composite poll in January 2026 showed Reform more than 7 points clear of its mainstream rivals.

Considerations

For a Reform member to become Chancellor, Reform would need to either win a general election outright or secure enough seats to form a government through coalition or confidence-and-supply arrangements.