Resolves N/A for options that are not the leader of Reform UK going into the next UK general election. Otherwise, resolves YES if the PM is Reform (even if they are not the leader going into the election), and NO otherwise.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Nigel Farage, followed by Robert Jenrick and Zia Yusuf are most likely. See the market for live updates (10 traders, as of Jul 7, 2026).

If this person is leader of Reform UK going into the next UK general election, will the PM be Reform?

Who will be the leader of Reform UK going into the next UK general election?

If this person is the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next UK election, will the PM be Conservative?

Will Reform be the official opposition after the next UK election?

27% chance

Will Reform be in government following the next UK general election

39% chance

Will Reform win the next UK election?

30% chance

Will Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?

70% chance

Who will be the next permanent leader of Reform UK (after Nigel Farage)?

If Farage loses the 2026 Clacton by-election, will the PM after the next general election be Reform?

29% chance

Which member of Reform will be Chancellor after the next general election, if any?

How many MPs will Reform UK have when the next UK General Election is called?

13.6

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